The 2011 NBA MVP Race, 20 games in

Roz Milner
December 9, 2010

UPDATE: Hindsight is 20/20, and apparently so are a number of The Good Point‘s readers. Mark Milner decided that he would once and for all take a good, hard look at the Derrick Rose MVP bandwagon in honor of the 2010-11 season’s 40-game mark. Readers, this one is for you.

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With most of the NBA about a fourth of the way into the schedule, it’s time to really start looking at who the candidates for MVP are this season.

Granted, it’s too early to make any real predictions. Still though, it can’t hurt to take a peek at who’s standing out early on. If nothing else, it should help give a good idea of who has dominated throughout the season – and not just gone on a tear later in the year. Remember, in his past two seasons, LeBron James was great throughout the entire year.

The way I broke down my choices was primarily by these ‘advanced’ stats: PER, usage per cent, Win Shares, both offensive and defensive ratings and a few others. I think it offers a better picture than just looking at averages or per-game numbers and hopefully helps elevate the standout players above the noise.

Note: All Stats accurate to 12/8/2010

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The Surprises

Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder:

25.1 PER (2nd in NBA), 31.4 Usage Percentage (4th), 2.7 Win Shares (17th), 44.6 Assist Percentage (5th)

The Thunder’s first month has been less than exciting, especially from a team which was so exciting in the 2010 postseason. As of this writing, they’re 14-7, yet their team statistics are not exactly stellar: for instance, they’re allowing as many points as they score per game (26th most in the NBA to be exact).

It’s still early, but Kevin Durant’s numbers are down from last season. His scoring is especially noticeable – in 2009-10, Durant led the team in scoring with nearly twice as many points as Westbrook. He was also the team’s leading rebounder. This season? Durant’s being outrebounded by Serge Ibaka and is second on the team in scoring, behind Westbrook.

Indeed, it’s Westbrook who has really stood out this season. He leads the Thunder in PER, is right with Durant in usage per cent and has nearly half as many win shares as he did last season – in just 22 games!

He’s had a few explosive games, like dropping 43 points on the Pacers on Nov. 26, or a near-triple double 38 point, 15 rebound, nine assist game against the Nets on Dec. 1. Small wonder he’s doubled his scoring from last season. Still, I wonder if he can keep playing at this pace, especially once Durant rounds into shape – will the Thunders’ offense shift to Durant first?

Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks:

24.9 PER (5th in NBA), 127.4 Offensive Rating (4th), 3.9 Win Shares (3rd)

The Joe Johnson signing may have made a case for his being the star player on the Hawks, but as of now, Horford is the player with the best resume: not only is he leading the team in a bunch of advanced stats – PER, Win Shares, offensive rating – but he’s right at the top of the NBA’s leaderboard.

His 127 offensive rating – which translates to about 127 points per 100 possessions – is more than some of the league’s top playmakers: Chris Paul, Manu Ginobili, Pau Gasol. Only Gasol and Paul have more win shares. And only Kobe Bryant, Gasol, Westbrook and Paul have a higher PER. Horford is playing at an exceptional clip this season, at career highs.

A recent quip on Yahoo! Sports said Horford is carrying the flag for the Hawks. It’s an accurate statement: Josh Smith is spotty at times and Joe Johnson is gone for at least the rest of the month with an elbow injury. Horford’s offense is a huge asset to the Hawks, who have the17th ranked offense in the NBA. I’m interested if he’ll keep this up throughout the season – the Sixers aren’t one of the NBA’s elite teams and I wonder if Horford will have to carry their offense.

The Usual Suspects

Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets:

26.9 PER (1st in NBA), 123.6 Offensive Rating (11th), 97.4 Defensive Rating (4th), 4.1 Win Shares (2nd)

Paul is putting together a heck of a season in New Orleans. He’s leading the NBA in PER, is second in Win Shares and is a big part of the Hornets’ success this season. As it stands now, New Orleans is 13-7 with a SRS of 3.25 (eighth in the NBA). Their defense is also doing good: they’re holding teams to under 93 points per game and their defensive rating is sixth-best in the league.

I don’t think it’s an overstatement to say Paul has had a big effect there. His defensive rating is 97.4, fourth-lowest in the league – the only guard in the top five.

He’s pretty good on the other side of the court, too. Playing about 34 minutes per game, he leads the team with an offensive rating of about 124. Since offensive rating is translated to points per 100 possessions, Chris Paul’s offensive rating is pretty impressive, considering he’s not a tremendous scorer; David West scores more per game.

How does that happen? Take a look at his assist percentage of 51.8: it translates to him assisting on over half of every Hornet basket when he’s on the floor.

Granted, he’s far from an outlier in the NBA. Rajon Rondo has a higher percentage and Steve Nash isn’t far behind. But, when taken as part of a larger snapshot of Paul’s season, it’s hard not to notice how important he is to the Hornets.

Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic:

24.2 PER (8th in NBA), 28.2 Usage Percentage (12th), 91.7 Defensive Rating (1st), 2.9 Win Shares (13th)

I don’t ever think the best defender in the NBA should be counted out of the MVP race; after all, isn’t the old cliche that defense wins championships? And nobody in the NBA puts up better defensive numbers than Howard does: He’s first in the NBA in defensive rating, fifth in blocks and logs major minutes on the team which allows the fewest points per game in the NBA.

Of course, it’s easy to overlook what he does on the other side of the court: he’s both the Magic’s leading scorer and rebounder and has the highest PER. He’s been limited to under 15 points just four times this season – and each of those games, he grabbed nine or more rebounds.

It’s also worth looking at how regularly he brings it. In a stretch of three games in four days – Nov. 24 to 27 – he put up at least 23 points and 11 rebounds in each game; in the last game of that stretch, he put up 32 points and 11 boards while playing nearly 42 minutes. To me, that speaks of his dependability. True, he’s got some talent playing around him – Jameer Nelson, for instance – but Howard is the core of the team. After all, he has the highest usage percentage on the team. By season’s end, I’d be surprised if he wasn’t a serious candidate for MVP.

Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs:

24.8 PER (6th in NBA), 123 Offensive Rating (14th) 3.5 Win Shares (5th)

Suggesting that Manu could be the league’s MVP seems kind of weird on the surface – aren’t the Spurs Tim Duncan’s team? – but it’s worth looking at the guy with the best numbers on what could be the best team in the NBA at the moment (I’m not going to argue with 17-3 record).

And it doesn’t hurt that statistically, he’s having one of his best seasons ever. His PER of 24.8 is as high as it’s ever been, as is his offensive rating and True Shooting Percentage (more on that in a second). Through 20 games, he’s already got 3.5 Win Shares – it’s not hard to imagine him matching his career high of 11.1.

After all, Ginobili is leading the team in scoring. He’s right behind Tony Parker in assists. And he’s getting to the line, leading the Spurs there, too. He leads the Spurs in True Shooting Percentage, a stat that takes all scoring – two and three point shots, plus free throws – into effect.

How important can that be? Take a look at his game on Dec. 3, against Minnesota: despite only hitting one of 10 shots, he was money from the line, hitting 13 free throws, including two that gave the Spurs a late lead. I hate to use terms like clutch in describing performance, but wouldn’t one expect a MVP to be able will a win like that?

Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers:

4.2 Win Shares (1st in NBA), 126.8 Offensive Rating (5th), 24.9 PER (3rd), 16.6 Total Rebound Per Cent (17th)

If the Spurs are the NBA’s best team, the Lakers aren’t far behind. At 15-6, they hold the second-highest scoring offense in the NBA and the fourth-highest SRS – behind only Miami, San Antonio and Boston. And while they’re a deep team – I’ll get to Kobe Bryant in a second – Pau Gasol is a big reason why they’re as good as they are.

But first, look at how he’s standing out on a league-wide level. He’s got more Win Shares than anybody and has the fifth-highest offensive rating. He’s one of the top-20 rebounders in the league with a 16.6 total rebound percent, too.

But where he really stands out is on a team level. He’s the Lakers’ leading rebounder (both in totals and percentages), has both the best offensive and defensive percentages and leads the team in Win Shares and is tied for team leader in PER with Bryant. Oh, and he leads the Lakers in minutes played, meaning they’re using him like nobody else.

Looking at his game log, I’m surprised at how long he’s out there: he’s had just two games where he played under 30 minutes and seven where he was on the court for 43 or more. Maybe with that much time out there, it’s not a total surprise he leads the team in scoring and rebounding, but still, doesn’t that speak to how important he is for this Laker team? And given how well the team is, doesn’t that reflect really kindly on him?

The Presumptive Favorites

Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers:

24.9 PER (4th in NBA), 36.1 USG% (1st), 2.8 WS (15th)

Where Gasol may be leading the Lakers, Kobe Bryant is the face of the team. Oh, and as a past MVP winner, he’s going to get a serious look as a MVP candidate. His season thus far doesn’t hurt, either.

Is it any surprise he leads the team in scoring? When one notes that Bryant is averaging nearly 20 shots per game but has one of his career’s worst shooting percentages, it kind of is. About a quarter of the way into the season, his field goal percentage is .435, among his lowest since 1998. His True Shooting percentage is it’s lowest ever, at .542.

How does it help his MVP chances? Well, for one, I find it hard to believe his shooting won’t improve. And secondly, while his shooting is off, he’s compensated in other areas. He leads the team in Assist Percentage, getting assists on nearly a quarter of the Lakers baskets when he’s on the floor. He’s getting to the line – more free throws made than any other Laker has attempted. Add to that a PER that’s fourth-highest in the NBA – above LeBron James, Howard and almost everybody else in the NBA.

Even with shooting problems, he’s doing something right – and I think that once his shots start dropping again, his MVP stock will go back up. It’s far too early to count him out.

LeBron James, Miami Heat:

24.2 PER (9th in NBA), 99.2 Defensive Rating (11th), 3.4 Win Shares (8th)

Sure, at 14-8, the Heat have yet to click, but I wouldn’t count out their star player (and reigning MVP) quite yet.

For one, there’s the intangibles: for this season, and probably beyond, he’s the most vilified figure on the most vilified team in the NBA. Teams are gunning for him, fans expect him to win and there’s the considerable media pressure on him at all times. And while he’s not approaching the phenomenal numbers he put up last season (31.1 PER, 18.5 Win Shares) he’s still putting together a solid season.

He’s seventh in the league in Win Shares – ahead of Howard and Bryant – and is in the top 10 for PER. While his offense hasn’t been stellar this season – his offensive rating is it’s lowest since his rookie season – his defencive rating of 99 is as good as it’s ever been. He’s third in the NBA in ( Defensive Win Shares), best explained at Basketball-Reference.com behind only Howard and Kevin Garnett.

And like Bryant, he’s still likely to improve. Unlike Bryant, however, one has to factor in how James is playing on a new team, with an almost entirely new supporting cast. We’re just a quarter of the way into the season and the Heat are 14-8, but they have the best SRS in the NBA so far. They’ll only get better as the season goes on, and as they do, I expect James’ numbers to improve with them.

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The Author:

Roz Milner