Running wild in the American League East
While there are now two wild card spots, the necessity to win the division is still huge. The two wild card teams in each league will play each other in a play-in game – essentially a one-game series – so no matter the preparation and desire of the players involved, anything can happen. Teams need to win their divisions to ensure that a one-game losing streak doesn’t equal the end of their championship campaign.
Across both leagues, the race to win the division is tight. In the American League, the team with the biggest lead is Texas, who sit six games above the surprising Oakland A’s. Six games is a nice buffer, but as the 2011 Red Sox and Braves will tell you, it’s not enough.
The Red Sox and Braves were ready to set their postseason starting rotations, but they blew massive wild card leads. In 2012, the Red Sox are an afterthought, sitting below .500 with five much better teams between them and the wild card. The Braves are in second spot, behind the Nationals and their duel prodigies.
Considering that the Red Sox and Braves were in control of bigger leads at this time last year, the divisional and wild card leaders will be feeling the pressure to stay on top. But inevitably, every year, the pressure gets to at least one team and a losing streak kills their playoff dreams.
A team losing a narrow divisional or wild card lead is disappointing, but forgivable. A team blowing a multi-game lead is shameful, and often results in a backlash from fans and media.
The New York Yankees will have to work hard to ensure they don’t repeat the failings of the 2011 Red Sox and Braves.
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Yankees fans were undoubtedly elated watching the Red Sox’ and Rays’ final games of the season. A sliding Crawford was unable to come up with a line drive to left, then moments later, Longoria gave the Rays the walk-off win, securing the lone wild card spot and booting the Red Sox. Yankees’ fans might not be so thankful for the Rays this year, as the return of Longoria has the Rays primed for a September chase.
CC Sabathia is on the 15-day disabled list, leaving an already thin Yankees rotation attempting to hold on to their top spot. The 2011 Red Sox featured the top offense in the league but their woeful pitching was too bad to overcome. The Yankees face a similar challenge. They have a deep line-up but lack the rotational depth that is so important for the September part of the season.
In order for them to maintain their ranking, the Yankees will need more than a healthy Sabathia. They’ll need one of their young arms to step up – they’ll need Ivan Nova in top form.
In June, Nova posted an ERA of 1.26. In the months before and after, Nova has been unable to get his ERA under 5. Using the advanced statistics though, we can see that Nova’s performance thus far in August is more in line with his June showing than his ERA might suggest. In Nova’s two worst months – May and July – he walked over 8.5 percent of batters (according to fangraphs’ xFIP). This resulted in a 4.40 xFIP in May and a 4.00 xFIP in July (5.87 and 5.97 ERA, respectively). When Nova posted walk rates below 6.5 percent, he was able to maintain an xFIP under 4. Advanced stats suggest that August has so far been Nova’s best month, posting year best strikeout and walk rates (resulting in a 2.37 xFIP).
If Nova can maintain this level of performance, his ERA will begin to align with his xFIP and the Yankees will go a long way toward holding off the charging Rays.
Stopping the Rays will be no easy task, however. The return of Longoria has energised the club and they are primed to make a run and reduce the gap between themselves and the Yankees. David Price is dominating (3.17 xFIP) and with Longoria sparking their offense, the Yankees will be sweating on the return of Sabathia.
Mark this down: the Orioles will soon be America’s team. They are flying under the radar right now, but if this team can make it to the playoffs, their underdog status will make them fan favorites – in a similar way that the Pirates are right now. They’ve called up young prospect Manny Machado and his early impressions are positive. Pitching will be their issue, but with Machado and Wieters in their line-up they’ll put out a formidable offense.
The American League East race is one of the better storylines to watch. The Yankees have and always will be a powerhouse baseball team; a perennial contender. Watching the low-budget Rays and the previously-struggling Orioles try and chase down the Yankee beast will be a treat for baseball fans. If the Yankees aren’t careful, they could be experience the same distraught their rival Red Sox fans felt last year, when Crawford couldn’t track down a sinking liner.
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