Auburn’s first loss may not be their last
The Auburn Tigers’ 17-game winning streak was snapped Saturday by the other band of Tigers from Clemson, and it may be a while before they’re able to get anywhere close to another one. It’s not unusual for title-winning teams to take a step back in the next season, particularly in college football where success often means you lose even more players to graduation and the NFL than normal, but Auburn’s specific circumstances may knock them further back than any defending national champion in recent history.
If their personnel chart and their slow start to the season is anything to go by, the Tigers’ loss to Clemson may just be the first of many.
Of course, it does come on the heels of an impressive string of success, and Auburn deserves plenty of credit for that. The Tigers’ streak started with a January 2010 win over Northwestern in the Outback Bowl. They then went on an incredible run in the 2010-11 season that saw them go 12-0 in the regular season before picking up their 13th and 14th victories in the SEC championship game and the BCS title game, and tacked on two more narrow victories to start this season against Utah State and Mississippi State before Clemson brought them down 38-24 on Saturday.
Their fall seemed somewhat inevitable, though, and the only surprise is that it took this long. This season, Auburn returned only six starters from their national championship squad, far less than any BCS champion ever has. In fact, they have fewer returning starters than every other FBS (the top tier of NCAA Division I football) in the country.
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The guys Auburn lost aren’t easy to replace either; much of their title drive came from the offensive efforts of quarterback Cam Newton, the 2010 Heisman Trophy winner, and the defensive efforts of tackle Nick Fairley, both of whom have since departed for the NFL’s Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions respectively. But those weren’t the only losses; the Tigers are without four starting offensive linemen from last season, their top two pass rushers, two of their top four receivers and six of their top seven tacklers.
Their new players – like junior quarterback Barrett Trotter – have talent, but are very raw, which was quite evident in the Tigers’ narrow victories over the likes of Utah State and Mississsippi State and their loss to Clemson.
Even if Auburn’s players improve with experience, their schedule does them no favors. The Tigers play in the loaded SEC West, which features three teams currently ranked in the top 15 slots of the Associated Press‘ top-25 poll. Those aren’t trifling teams either; LSU’s currently ranked second in the country, Alabama’s third and Arkansas is 14th. Auburn will face all of them in the coming weeks, plus 12th-ranked South Carolina, 15th-ranked Florida and the ever-dangerous Georgia Bulldogs. None of those games are going to be easy, and as lightly-regarded Utah State proved, even teams like Florida Atlantic and Samford can’t be written off.
In the longer term, the Tigers should be fine. Their national title run brought them a huge amount of attention, and with it a recruiting haul. Auburn inked Rivals’ seventh-ranked class in 2011 and currently has the 12th-ranked 2012 recruiting class.
They’ve got plenty of talent on the field already, too, which should develop perhaps even more quickly than normal given their enormous attrition, and there’s lots more in the pipeline. They also still have legendary offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, who turned down head coaching opportunities in the offseason to remain with the Tigers, and he’s already shown promise in developing the current offense with new starter Trotter.
It’s going to take a while for the Tigers to return to powerhouse status, though, and if the results to date are any indication, this could be a very ugly season for them.
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