Boston and Atlanta: Much ado about (doing) nothing

While fans of Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves clamor for new blood, the clubs themselves instead chose to rely on a return to form from previous investments.

A quiet offseason usually means that a team is now worse than the previous year. However, by doing nothing, these two teams will actually get better.

It is particularly commendable that the Red Sox and Braves were able to avoid a major player overhaul despite both suffering late-season collapses. There was a perceived knee-jerk reaction from the Red Sox in the firing of manager Terry Francona and release of GM Theo Epstein, but these moves had more to do with a desired culture shift than the actual on-field results. The Braves brass stayed loyal to their employees.

With poor seasons from multiple players, the clubs were probably lucky to be in the playoff hunt for as long as they were. This season, both Boston and Atlanta will be relying on a return to form from those they previously signed or developed rather than spending major resources on bringing in new blood.

It should be noted that the definition of “doing nothing” varies with each team. The Braves, while not a small market team, aren’t usually involved in major signings every year, whereas for Red Sox fans, the riches of 2010’s offseason have left them with high expectations. Signing Cody Ross and trading for Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney constitute little more than a blip in an ideal Red Sox offseason. 

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To be good at doing nothing, you have to be patient and you need faith. For Frank Wren and Ben Cherington it is a faith based on analysis and meticulous evaluation rather than blind hope.

To see why each team did nothing we’ll start in the outfield and work our way in.

After performing like a bona fide superstar in 2010 (7.6 WAR), Carl Crawford played like he had dementia in 2011. It was as though the front office – perhaps out of fear of putting too much pressure on him – instructed his teammates to not inform him that the bat he took up was actually a ladle from the team’s soup lunch. He was awful – 0.2 WAR awful.

Rather than overreact in the same way a Wall Street trader might sell after watching stocks drop, the Red Sox are staying with him. And no, it’s not just because “he can’t get any worse.” While that may be true, it’s because they know by looking at the numbers that he won’t be that bad. Bill James – the father of sabermetrics and current Red Sox employee – has a formula for predicting player performances, and while not perfect, he’s very accurate.

Here’s Bill James’ prediction for Crawford’s 2012 season (for reference I’ve included his 2011 numbers in brackets):

286 AVG (.255), .332 OBP (.289), .436 SLG (.405), 73 RBIs (56), 93 runs (65), and 34 stolen bases (18).

All of which should amount to around four extra wins for the Red Sox.

On the other corner, the Red Sox weren’t getting much help either. Their worst position in 2011 was the one in right field, regardless of what name or number appeared there on a day-to-day basis. Crawford, despite a down year, still flashed signs of brilliance and showed in one series in Detroit that he can very much be the difference between victory and defeat. But right fielders – whether it was J.D. Drew’s attempt to play a full season in slow motion, Mike Cameron’s .149 batting average, or Josh Reddick’s vendetta against balls outside the strike zone – combined to give the Red Sox very little production (note: they did this despite often receiving favorable platoon matchups).

In 2012, the Red Sox will go with two superior platoon guys in Ryan Sweeney and Cody Ross. Both were relatively minor acquisitions but will at least provide the Red Sox with some semblance of performance, with both hitting their opposite-handed pitchers well and playing above average defense.

The Braves had their own disappointment in right field in Jason Heyward. Before Bryce Harper, this guy was the next ‘it’ guy but a down 2011 campaign cooled such predictions. However, the Braves see his lack of production as a combination of two factors: an injury he incurred early in the season and his inability to fully recover from it; as well as a natural adjustment period all young hitters are meant to go through as pitchers adjust to their tendencies. Now healthier and hungrier, Heyward is out to prove doubters wrong. For predictions let’s turn to James again:

.269 AVG (.227), .374 OBP (.319), .457 SLG (.389), 74 RBIs (42), 86 runs (50), and 14 stolen bases (9).

These improved numbers should give the Braves around two extra wins and re-solidify Heyward’s status as an ‘it’ guy. He is still only 23 years old.

On the infield, both the Red Sox and Braves should see better production. The Red Sox will be looking for a healthy season from Kevin Youkilis. Last season he played 120 games and 102 in 2010. The Red Sox will be happy with 130 games from Youkilis, especially if he can regain some of his 2009 form where he racked up 5.9 WAR, in which case he’ll be a major asset to their offense. Here’s the prediction:

.281 AVG (.258), .389 OBP (.373), .489 SLG (.459), 86 RBIs (80), and 87 runs (68).

More importantly, James has him playing 135 games. Obviously stolen bases aren’t required for Youk’s prediction going forward but for the Braves shortstop position, they could be the difference in an upgrade.

Farm product Tyler Pastornicky will be taking over from Alex Gonzalez. Pastornicky, while not a great hitter, will be an upgrade at the position. Gonzalez has the better power numbers but Pastornicky will make less outs and more importantly, steal more bases. He should be good for around 20 swiped bags while Gonzalez rarely racks up more than three. It won’t be a major upgrade, but it could be the difference in a few key September games. The Braves will also see more production out of Pastornicky’s double play partner, Dan Uggla.

Uggla hit more home runs last season than in any season in his career, but he also made more outs. He posted a career low batting average and on base percentages while having his worst defensive season (based on Fangraphs’ fielding statistics). Uggla has never been a defensive whizz (that All-Star game was hard to watch) but if he can continue to hit for power while improving his on-base numbers, he’ll be a force in the Braves’ line-up. Here’s his prediction:

.251 AVG (.233), .337 OBP (.311), .473 SLG (.453), 92 RBIs (82), and 95 runs (88).

The Braves’ offense will be strong, but nothing compared to the Red Sox.

In 2011 the Sox featured the best scoring offense in the majors – leading the league in runs scored, on-base percentage, doubles, total bases and slugging percentage – and with improved contributions from Crawford, right fielders and Youkilis they should be even better in 2012. But if they want to secure a postseason berth and make any kind of run they’ll need a bounce back year from one of their best pitchers, Clay Buchholz.

In 2010 Buchholz won 17 games. Last year, due to a stress fracture in his back, he was restricted to 14 starts. Without him the Red Sox were forced to rely on John Lackey (6.41 ERA), Tim Wakefield (5.12 ERA), and Andrew Miller (5.54 ERA). The back end of their rotation appeared to be auditioning to throw for the home run derby. Buchholz has since been throwing off a mound and appears to have made a full recovery. If the Red Sox can get 25+ starts out of him they’ll be playing past September next year.

By employing a patient and analytical approach – or as it’s more commonly known, doing nothing – both front offices should see their teams enjoy better seasons in 2012. The money saved by not spending on players when they had their own cheaper options available can be used in future offseasons on positions that actually need upgrading.

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