A familiar story in Buffalo, but could it have a different ending?
Despite offseason questions over their offensive line, defense and seventh-round pick quarterback, the Buffalo Bills won four out of their first five games to start the 2011 season, just enough to solidify themselves as early contenders for the AFC East title. Now through Week 7 with the division-leading New England Patriots still in sight, they can thank the mould-breaking play of their unheralded quarterback and a pair of impressive running backs.
Heard this one before? Sure it describes the Buffalo Bills’ 4-2 start to the 2011 season, but it could just as well sum up their 4-1 start in 2008. That season, quarterback Trent Edwards, wide receiver Lee Evans and running backs Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson led the Bills to a strong start before injuries to Edwards, Lynch and the offensive line brought their playoff chances crumbling down with a 7-9 record.
The coincidences raise a key question: how can Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jackson, C.J. Spiller, Steve Johnson and head coach Chan Gailey succeed where Dick Jauron’s 2008 team failed?
For starters, one difference between the two teams is whom they’ve faced. The 2011 Bills’ only losses so far have been close defeats by fellow 4-2 teams Cincinnati and the New York Giants, and those came in road games not decided until the fourth quarter. Their wins have come against the Kansas City Chiefs, who may be having a mediocre season but won the AFC West last year, current AFC West contender Oakland, long-time rival and last year’s top regular-season team New England and preseason NFC favorite Philadelphia. By contrast, the 2008 team beat also-rans like St. Louis and Seattle and their first loss was a blowout at the hands of eventual NFC champion Arizona.
As Matthew Warren, who covers the Bills for Buffalo Rumblings, puts it, “The 2008 team took advantage of turnovers, but really, they were just playing mediocre teams. The 2011 team did it to Tom Brady and Michael Vick.”
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Another difference between 2008 and 2011 is the close working relationship between Gailey and Fitzpatrick.
“Those guys are super smart and know what they are doing,” Warren said. “I don’t know if you can say the same thing for Trent Edwards and Dick Jauron in 2008. This offense will get healthier and continue to score points.”
While it may seem like the Bills have come from out of nowhere, a closer look at the second half of their 2010 campaign reveals that just isn’t the case. After starting 2010 0-8, the Bills went 4-4 the rest of the season, with injuries to Fitzpatrick a major reason why they even lost three of their last five games at all. Even when the Bills did lose, it was close.
“I think the close games were foreshadowed last year in OT losses to the Steelers, Ravens and Chiefs,” Warren said. “The Bills learning how to win is really what’s shocked people. They were in games last year but now they have learned how to close.”
Perhaps most importantly, the Bills have weapons in 2011 they just didn’t have in 2008. Jackson was already a promising No. 2 running back by then, but he has since emerged as the clear-cut starter and had an outstanding season to date, despite preseason questions about whether Jackson or Spiller was the team’s No. 1 running back. On defense, George Wilson has gone from a converted wide receiver to being named AFC Defensive Player of the Week after the victory over Philly. Even the 2008 Bills didn’t have a tight end as talented as Scott Chandler.
“Game planning is the reason Chandler’s been able to have a good start to the 2011 season,” Warren said. “In Week 1, the Bills exploited his size as a mismatch for some catches. In Weeks 2 and 3 they did it to get touchdowns in the red zone. Since then he’s slipped off but his size and blocking ability will still get him on the field. He’s not going anywhere.”
The Bills aren’t perfect, but they are promising. While he admits the pass rush needs more consistency, Warren still believes the Bills can keep up their winning pace throughout the rest of the season:
“The Bills have stepped up to each challenger they’ve been faced with,” he said. “They’ve beaten ‘more talented’ teams like the Patriots and Eagles. Their two losses have been by a combined six points and both were on field goals in the last two minutes of the game. There is no reason to think they won’t continue playing tough, close games and come out of top of some of them.”
Talk about your second chances. It may feel like déjà vu in Buffalo, but things could end a lot better for the Bills this time around.
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