Chris Johnson, the holdout and the importance of cashing in
This NFL preseason had too many storylines to name after a lockout took away most of the offseason. One of them featured one of the NFL’s top running backs, Chris Johnson, holding out from the second-to-last year in his contract with the Tennessee Titans.
After his selection as a first-round pick (24th overall) in 2008, Johnson signed a five-year, $12 million contract – a reasonably standard rookie contract considering his draft position. However, the running back wound up playing above his deal. Since coming into the league, Johnson has been the NFL’s top RB in terms of yardage gained. Adrian Peterson was second over that time frame, so if Johnson wanted a raise, he had a good comparable.
The Competition
Peterson, unlike Johnson, was highly sought after going into the draft. Peterson was a star at Oklahoma, and it was a bit of a shock when he slipped as far as he did in the 2007 draft – seventh overall to the Minnesota Vikings. Peterson signed a six-year, $40.5 million contract.
Johnson, turning 26 this month, had something else to think about. NFL careers are shorter than careers in other professional sports, and running backs have shorter careers than even the average NFL player, especially when you compare the peaks.
Johnson, whether we like to think about it this way or not, probably felt the need to cash in and couldn’t see himself providing top-caliber performance for his below-average rookie salary. If the “rule of 30” (which states that most running backs’ performances tend to deteriorate after reaching age 30) is to be considered, Johnson saw only a handful of seasons left in his peak. By holding out and signing a new contract for $53.5 million with $30 million of that guaranteed, he was able to cash in at the perfect time. He will be the top-paid running back in the NFL after extending his contract until 2015 (when he will turn, yup, 30). This isn’t just a win for Johnson, though, as by not signing him past age 30, the Titans assume a lot less risk and have a very good chance of getting good value for the life of the contract.
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The Rule
The rule of 30 is nothing set in stone. Like every rule, there are exceptions. Still, the examples are numerous. Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Marshall Faulk are a few. So are Priest Holmes, Curtis Martin, Emmitt Smith, Eddie George, and, to show that this isn’t only a recent thing, Eric Dickerson.
Of course, it wasn’t a strict rule that they all fell apart at the exact age of 30, but the correlation is still quite notable. These players were at the top of their game heading into their 30s. Some were still very good at 31 or 32 but not one had a stellar season past that. Most weren’t even full-time starters and if they were, it wasn’t for a good team.
The Future
There are a lot of fans in football, generally reluctant to cheer on players who hold out. This time, those numbers might be even larger than normal as Johnson called out fans who didn’t take his side on Twitter. He told them to shut up and called them “fake Titan fans”. He tried to defend that by saying that these weren’t real fans and he was talking only about ones that were calling him greedy and wrote “racist comments”. Still, the comments may have alienated even those who were fine with his holdout.
Despite that, Johnson and the Titans both got their way in this contract. The Titans had said prior to any contract agreement that they had no problem making Johnson the highest-paid running back in NFL history. That’s what they did, but they managed to keep the contract length short to lower their risk. They’re not home and dry yet, though, as what was an even weirder-than-usual offseason turned into a weirder-than-usual preseason. Thanks to his holdout, Johnson has not played a snap of football yet, missing all of the Titans’ preseason games. Moreover, the Titans have a new offensive system under new coordinator Chris Palmer and a new quarterback in Matt Hasselback.
The Titans have only praised Johnson’s fitness, but he will still likely see less than normal action in their first regular-season game Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It will probably take a while to integrate him with the new system and personnel. Still, things aren’t looking too bad for him. Tennessee’s offense revolves around Johnson, and it’s tough to see him missing long periods of time, especially considering the successful resolution to his holdout.
Now, he just needs to live up to his contract and win back the fans.
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