The JVR question: Can history repeat itself?
In continuing with their theme from this offseason, the Philadelphia Flyers have made another move that’s generated chatter among the masses.
The Flyers signed James van Riemsdyk, the former second-overall pick of the 2007 NHL Draft, to a six-year deal worth $4.25 million per season. According to Frank Servalli of Philly.com, van Riemsdyk gave his agent one mandate when negotiating a new contract: Make sure the deal won’t clog up the Flyers’ salary cap down the road.
A noble act indeed, but now that the deal is signed, only van Riemsdyk’s play can determine whether the contract is a bargain or a bust.
From this point on, both van Riemsdyk and Claude Giroux will be counted on to lead a new-look Flyers offense that hopes to avoid a goal-scoring pinch after the team jettisoned both Jeff Carter and Mike Richards in the offseason.
The departure of the former Flyers represents a 59-goal loss, so replacing the two will be no short order. The most recent deal leaves some people to wonder why the Flyers would jump the gun and sign van Riemsdyk to this type of long-term contract after only two decent seasons of 35 and 40 points.
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Sure, van Riemsdyk only improved upon his rookie season by five points, but he has a higher points-per-game average through his first two seasons than Mike Richards, Travis Zajac and David Backes did at the same point in their careers. His points-per-game is also only slightly lower than Corey Perry’s during his first two seasons.
Teams around the league had difficulty signing their own RFAs this offseason, unlike the mostly-watching Flyers. Tampa Bay took months to ink Steven Stamkos; and Drew Doughty, Luke Schenn and Zach Bogosion have yet to sign new deals, despite training camp being right around the corner.
Regardless of the Flyers’ motivation throughout the summer months, the JVR deal makes more sense when we examine a few comparable players who signed similar deals to van Riemsdyk when they took their first crack at restricted free agency.
Prior to the 2009-2010 season, Milan Lucic, having scored six fewer points than JVR was entering the final year of his entry level contract. He signed a three-year deal valued at slightly more than $4 million a season. Similarly, mid-way through the final year of Jordan Staal’s entry level contract, the Penguins locked him up for $4 million a year for four seasons. During Staal’s first two seasons in the league he actually scored five fewer points than van Riemsdyk and did so in 10 additional games.
The money might seem like a lot for someone who hasn’t done much, but it’s the market rate.
The seven goals van Riemsdyk scored in last year’s playoffs seem like they could be a sign of things to come for the young winger. Last year he scored over 20 goals and next season, with increased ice time, he could hit 30. And it’s not all about point totals; JVR is a solid defender and personality.
It is still somewhat shocking that van Riemsdyk will be making more money than Claude Giroux, but it’s important to understand that JVR’s deal buys out two years of unrestricted free agency, whereas Giroux’s will end right as he is about to become a UFA, giving him the opportunity to leverage an even more lucrative deal.
If the Flyers want reassurance for their deal with van Riemsdyk they have to look no further than the man they hope JVR can replace, Mr. Jeff Carter.
The Flyers signed the Canadian to a three-year deal worth $5 million a season after he scored 53 points in the final year of his entry level deal. The contract was immediately justified as Carter broke out and scored 46 goals and 84 points the very next year, leading the Flyers in both categories along the way.
And with that precedent as a measuring stick, the Flyers are banking on potential. It is a risk, but it’s a calculated one. With JVR, the Flyers just have to hope history repeats itself.
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