Matt Cain: The best right-hander in baseball
For the past four seasons, Matt Cain’s stellar career has been overshadowed by that of his pitching partner, Tim Lincecum.
But with Lincecum struggling to display the form which earned him two straight Cy Young Awards and the right to take the ball in Game 1 of the World Series, Cain has become the true ace of the Giants’ staff.
On Wednesday, he went a step further. In the outing against the Astros, Cain cemented his status as one of the best pitchers in baseball.
While pitching fans have recently been spoiled with a number of no-hitters and perfect games, Cain’s game is being heralded as one of the greatest nine inning performances ever. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs.com noted that Wednesday’s Game Score of 101 is good for the second-best nine-inning performance of all time (tied with Koufax and Ryan but losing to Wood’s 105).
Cain’s game score of 101 also beats the 96 posted by Tim Lincecum in the 2010 playoffs when he struck out 14 (tied for most K’s in a perfect game), but allowed an excessive two hits. Cain’s besting of Lincecum’s score is a nice microcosm of him becoming the staff ace.
It is unlikely Lincecum will continue to struggle as much as he has and his second half should remind Giants fans of his immense talent, but Cain’s improvement is so great that even vintage Lincecum will look second rate.
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Cain has yet to post a strikeout total above 200 in a season. He’s always been a control pitcher, maintaining success by keeping his walk rate to around 2.5 per nine innings. In 2012, his walk rate is a miniscule 1.52 per nine. This decrease alone would merit him being recognised as one of the top right-handers, but when it’s combined with his new strikeout rate, it is clear that he is becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball, right- or left-handed.
In 2011, Cain struck out 179. In 2010, he fanned 177, and got 171 in 2009. If he maintains his current rate, he’ll finish 2012 with 223 strikeouts. That’s an increase in strikeouts over nine innings from 7.27 in 2011 to 9.09 in 2012.
The Giants are patting themselves on the back for their decision to give him the richest contract ever awarded to a right-handed pitcher because, right now, he’s earning every dollar.
To put things into perspective, look at some of the other right-handed pitchers across baseball.
Washington’s Stephen Strasburg has the slight statistical advantage when it comes to these pitching categories, but he’s on an innings limit and is coming back from a major injury, which suggests that, at least this season, he’ll be overmatched by Cain come season’s end.
Philadelphia’s Roy Halladay is injured. This won’t be his best season.
Seattle’s Felix Hernandez has always been a talent, but Cain’s recent improvements put him ahead of Hernandez in strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed over nine innings.
Milwaukee’s Zach Greinke is one of only two true challengers to being the best right-hander, and a very strong argument can be made for him (better strikeout and home run totals) but Cain’s inning total of 95 compared to Greinke’s 79 puts him ahead. Greinke has electric stuff, but Cain is a workhorse.
The other challenger was the first pitcher since Roger Clemens to be voted Most Valuable Player. Detroit’s Justin Verlander and Matt Cain are strikingly similar in form: 96 strikeouts for Cain, 95 for Verlander; 95 innings for Cain, 93.2 for Verlander, 2.18 ERA for Cain, 2.69 for Verlander. Either could take the ball and dominate, but give the slight edge to Cain for his lower walk totals: 16 compared with 23.
Prior to 2012, Lincecum would have been in the discussion too. But his statistical tumbles have meant that Cain has not only become the ace of the San Francisco Giants. He’s become the best righty in baseball.
And really, his performance on Wednesday night is all the argument you need.
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