Baseball’s most important players
Full disclosure: my brain didn’t think of this idea. I was inspired by a fantastic piece by Zach Lowe on Grantland where he calls out Oklahoma City’s Serge Ibaka as the most important player in the NBA.
It’s not because he’s the best (far from it), but because of the perfect storm that surrounds him, his development, or lack thereof, will decide the future of basketball for the next few years. If Ibaka performs the way he’s projected to, then the OKC Thunder should be top title contenders every year for the foreseeable future, and the Chesapeake Energy Arena will soon house a banner that reads “NBA Champion.”
If the ball falls the other way, the force that was supposed to be the OKC Thunder may never materialize, opening the door for a cluster of other teams to make their moves to the top. Obviously not everything falls on the shoulders of Ibaka, but the basic point is well put: there may not be a single player with more dominos behind him than Serge Ibaka.
This, of course, got me thinking about similar players in the world of baseball. The most important players aren’t the best; they’re the ones that, depending on where they go with development, will shape the landscape of the game for now and the foreseeable future.
But because baseball has so many moving parts (much more than in basketball) and a much longer season, one player just can’t be responsible for so much. But break it down per division, and you can find the one player that can decide how the next few years will pan out.
These are those people:
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American League
East: Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
Who?
Obviously it’s a Yankee. A playoff contender for the last infinity years, the AL East starts and ends with the New York Yankees. But like the Be Sharps learned after winning that Grammy, all good things must come to an end. Eventually, that will happen with New York, but when it happens is the question, and second baseman Robinson Cano is the answer. Less hype than Derek Jeter and less expensive than Mark Teixeira, Cano is the most important part of the Yankee offense. He’s a perennial MVP candidate, averaging a .314 batting average and 28 home runs in his last four years. He plays fine defense, and his splits (.304/.359/.582 at home, .321/.397/.520 on the road) prove his bat is the real deal and not a product of the home run factory that is Yankee Stadium.
Why?
The Yankees are old, but at 30, Cano is still one of the younger ones. He is a free agent after the 2013 season, and if he’s allowed to walk the AL East will become wide open. Jeter, Rodriguez and Teixeira cannot be counted on to lead an offense, only compliment one. Cano is a leader, and the team needs an offensive rock once the other ones finish eroding. Boston is a shambles, the Orioles have to prove they’re not a one-season wonder, Tampa Bay’s most important figure is their manager, and the Blue Jays are, well, the Blue Jays. As long as Cano is there the Yankee offense has life, thus the team has a shot. If he’s gone, the Yankees will fall hard.
Central: Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers
Who?
Slotted behind “Best Pitcher in the World” Justin Verlander, Scherzer is one of baseball’s most frustrating talents. One game he’s striking out 12 over 8 shutout innings, the other he’s blowing up and throwing some of the most hittable balls in the division. He seemed to put it together more than not this season, and a fantastic effort in the playoffs helped Detroit make the World Series. He was acquired by the team in 2009 in a three-team deal that also netted the Tigers Phil Coke and Austin Jackson. It could go down as one of the best deals in team history.
Why?
Detroit knows what they’ll get out of the Verlander. He’s hands down the best pitcher in the world (despite World Series struggles), and can be relied on for as long as he’s in a Tiger uniform. And while the confidence level for Scherzer is growing, it’s when that full potential is reached that Detroit will breathe easy atop the AL Central. If he has put it all together, the Tigers have maybe the best 1-2 punch in the majors, and paired with Cabrera/Fielder at the plate, Detroit should be considered strong divisional and World Series contenders for the next little while. But if Scherzer reverts back to bad form, the Tigers are short of pitching to make that leap to their first World Series title since 1984.
West: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Who?
This was the closest one to decide. Yoenis Cespedes’ offensive improvement could define the Oakland A’s for the next couple of years, as could the potential decline of Adrian Beltre in Texas. But Trout, the runaway 2012 Rookie of the Year and should-be MVP is not only the AL West’s most exciting player, but also the most important. He puts up numbers not seen since Mantle, and he’s only 20 years old. There isn’t anything he cannot do.
Why?
Did I mention he was 20 years old? As in not legal to drink, even though he deserves ALL the alcohol? Trout is a defining talent, a player who, if his personality allows it, will host SNL one day, appear on The Simpsons and dance with Ellen. Somehow, Trout can get better. And if (or when) he does, the rest of the AL West won’t stand a chance. No one will.
National League
East: Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
Who?
Maybe the least inspiring pick in the bunch. His importance to the team has already been documented in the real world. The Nationals were one of the best teams in the league when they were able to throw Strasburg out every five days. Without him, they clearly were missing that spark. A performing Strasburg may not have prevented a first-round loss by the Nats in the postseason, but with Strasburg on the hill maybe Washington never would have been in a position where they would have been eliminated.
Why?
Strasburg is pretty much worth all the hype that surrounds him. He’s a legit ace with killer numbers and killer-er stuff. If he’s healthy for the next few years, he gives one of the best young teams in the league the best young pitcher in the league. If he’s out, whether by injury or by stupid GM decisions, the Nationals will be missing their biggest piece; one that isn’t needed in order to play meaningful games in September, but will be needed in October. A healthy Strasburg keeps the rising Atlanta Braves from the top of the division. If the Mets ever figure out how to play baseball, there is enough talent there to make a run as well in two or three years. But if Stephen Strasburg is playing, then you might as well just print Washington Nationals NL East Champion hats until 2016.
Central: Mat Latos, Cincinnati Reds
Who?
The Reds raided the farm to acquire Latos from the Padres last winter, and for the first half of the season the fans wanted to throw GM Walt Jocketty back into that farm (maybe give him some farm-mates from The Walking Dead). But the second half of the season saw Latos emerge as the ace the Reds wanted. Starting from a 13-strikeout, complete game performance on June 25, Latos started 19 games and had a 2.43 ERA, striking out 115 in 129.3 innings and holding opposing hitters to a .201 batting average.
His postseason was a little shakier. His appearance in Game 1 – as a reliever after Johnny Cueto was hurt nine pitches into the game – was fantastic on short notice (4.0IP, 1BB, 1ER). His start in Game 5 was less than inspiring (4.1IP, 5ER, 7H). Still, that could be attributed to a messed up throwing schedule and the unenviable task of playing the seemingly destiny-inspired San Francisco Giants.
Why?
Latos has more upside than Johnny Cueto, the other ace in the Cincinnati rotation. He has otherworldly stuff, as he showed during a magical summer in San Diego when he set a new MLB record with 15 consecutive starts of five-plus innings and less than two runs allowed. Latos’ emergence as the best pitcher on Cincinnati helped the Reds clinch the NL Central title, and that sentence (slightly altered, of course) can be recycled for the next several years. Houston and Chicago just aren’t good enough to dent the Central ceiling. Pittsburgh’s most important player is Andrew McCutchen, but even an MVP year by the center fielder wasn’t enough to propel Pittsburgh to a winning record. A case can be made for Ryan Braun in Milwaukee or Yadier Molina in St. Louis, but neither can win a game on their own the way Latos is able to. If he is what he’s supposed to be, the Reds are atop the NL Central.
West: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
Who?
He’s the seemingly-charmed catcher of the World Series Champion San Francisco Giants. In 2010, Posey’s first season in the majors, San Fran won the title. A horrific injury after a collision at home took Posey out of the 2011 season and the Giants finished outside of the playoffs. A healthy Posey this year yielded another World Series title. Coincidence? Maybe, but an MVP crown for the 25-year-old would probably convince some of the doubters.
Why?
In a division dominated by pitchers, Posey stands as the most important figure. The NL West is home to some of the best pitchers in the majors (Clayton Kershaw and Matt Cain come to mind), but it’s also a home to some of the best reclamation projects in recent MLB history. Ryan Vogelsong, Jason Marquis and Aaron Harang have all re-started careers playing in the spacious parks that occupy this division, and Josh Beckett may join them next year (same with Dan Haren if some of the rumors are true).
It’s much harder to find elite hitting in this division. Matt Kemp is a close second to Posey, but the acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford takes some of the offensive pressure off of Kemp. Sure, Posey has Pablo Sandoval and Brendan Belt to help with some of the hitting, but Posey is both the oil and the motor in San Fran. Just look at the facts again: played in 2010, Giants win title. Didn’t play in 2011, Giants no win title. Play in 2012, Giants win title. 1+1 = 2. Plus, he’s a catcher, which means he’ll probably be manager of these Giants in 2025 winning yet another one.
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