A pack of (under)dogs
What happened to the baseball behemoths? What happened to the invincible beasts of the East? And in the West, wasn’t Albert Pujols meant to win his first American League MVP and help the Angels topple the Rangers? Were the Nationals really meant to break out this soon, despite their prodigious outfielder not being the immediate superstar many envisioned?
If, before the season, you were worried that baseball and its lack of a salary cap had made things too predictable, how are you feeling now? The Yankees look shaky, the Red Sox have collapsed and been a major disappointment decided to rebuild, the Angels aren’t chasing down the Rangers, they’re chasing down the Athletics, the Pirates are in the hunt for a wild card, and the Nationals are the best team in baseball.
What the heck?
Wasn’t the formula “money = success?” Especially when teams caught up to Billy Beane’s (well, really Bill James’) money ball technique, weren’t the big teams meant to get better, and the small teams worse?
According to ESPN, the Athletics have the lowest payroll in baseball ($49,137,500). The Pirates have the fifth-lowest ($62,466,000) and the Orioles are in the bottom half, still well below the $100,000,000 threshold with $80,804,000 (the Nationals sit right beneath them with $80,584,145).
Two of the top four spenders, the Phillies and Red Sox, have records below .500. The Yankees, owners of the highest payroll, are desperately fending off a September chase from the Orioles and the Rays ($65,008,071).
This hasn’t just been one of the most extraordinarily unpredictable years in baseball, one in which underdogs have become 160-pound Rottweilers and are terrifying their wealthier rivals (who we’ll say are Chihuahuas – sorry Chihuahuas).
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Small market fans are being spoiled. Not only are they watching the high-spending teams struggle, they’re watching their own teams win.
Consider the success of those teams and add to it the sensational rookie Mike Trout; the blockbuster trade between the Dodgers and the Red Sox, the resurgence of Derek Jeter, the innings limit on Stephen Strasburg, the arrival of Bryce Harper, the imports of Yu Darvish and Yoenis Cespedes, the trading of Ichiro to the Yankees, the swansong of Chipper Jones, and many other exciting story lines, and you have the makings of one of the most memorable years of baseball.
Another way to think of it is that if baseball has an overarching narrative (including a storyline, plot, characters and setting) and each year and each offseason are like chapters in that narrative, then 2012 is the chapter that makes your heart stop and you’re unable to put down the book until you find out how it finishes.
And while I want to go on about it, I think it’s a discussion best left until after the playoffs. For now, let’s look at one element of that incredible chapter: the underdogs.
If your team has fallen out of contention, or you’re just a casual baseball fan and you wait until September to pick a team, or you’re not really a baseball fan, but love a good underdog story, then this is your guide for choosing one.
The Baltimore Orioles
Can they win it all? The Orioles haven’t had a winning season since 1997 when Rafael Palmeiro played first base and hit 38 dingers. Their Pythagorean win-loss is 65-70 (a win-loss record based on runs scored versus runs against). But if you told the Orioles that their record is lucky and better than it should be, do you think they’d care? At 76-59 they are tied with the injury-riddled Yankees. If the Red Sox and Yankees were at their usual beast-like selves, this Orioles team (even with their winning record) wouldn’t get a modicum of attention. But fortune has found the Orioles; they have timed their run well. They have a lockdown bullpen, a powerful offense, and starters who, while they may be over-performing, are getting the job done. Their stats say they probably shouldn’t be here, but that’s what makes them fun. The Orioles were the best team in August and if that momentum carries, they’ll overtake the Yankees and win the American League East (thus ensuring they don’t have to play a one-game knockout with the other wild card winner).
Who’s worth watching? Adam Jones. He started the year hot and was in the conversation for MVP, but he cooled and went 110 at-bats without homering. Lately he’s been showing that early-season form and if anyone’s going to guide the Orioles to the playoffs, it will be their star centerfielder (Matt Wieters is also a major part of this team’s success, but offensively he hasn’t been the player many predicted him to be).
Why are they a good underdog? An extended period of sucking? Check. Years of toiling under AL East bullies? Check. Written off by many experts at the start of the season? Check. A hard-nosed manager who wouldn’t listen to excuses and a bullpen that refuses to lose after the seventh inning? Check and check. This is a gritty team who have no right to be where they are, but they couldn’t care less over who doubted them and now they’re one month away from tasting the playoffs. It will be pleasure to see Oriole Park at Camden Yards full in October, and their fans deserve it.
Also, if you look good in orange and black, then this is the team for you.
The Pittsburgh Pirates
Can they win it all? The Pirates are the underdogs with the toughest road ahead. Their only chance is with the wild card, where they are multiple games behind their divisional rivals, the Cardinals. The Reds are looking solid (i.e. they won’t Red Sox it [from now on this is the term for a late season collapse]) so it’s unlikely the Pirates will be able to win the division. In the wild card, the Braves are a better team than they were at this point last year and the Dodgers just retooled by acquiring Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett (okay, okay, and Nick Punto). Don’t let this dissuade you. Remember, if they pull it off and make the playoffs, you get to be right there with them and it would be an exciting run. They may be a year ahead of schedule though, as their premier pitching prospects – Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon – haven’t quite arrived, and they’ll need an immediate pitching injection from somewhere if they’re going to finish the September race in a playoff spot. They don’t have the star power of the Cardinals, Braves or Dodgers, but don’t write them off yet. They do have a solid home-grown core with a hungry manager and an even hungrier fanbase. Oh, and they have the likely MVP, too.
Who’s worth watching? The aforementioned MVP-to-be happens to be one Andrew McCutchen. And really, he’s the only reason you need to make this underdog your pick. The guy’s relaxed batting stance (like he was pumping gas into his car), the blazing speed in center, the magnificent dreadlocks. This is a player who is easy to root for. He’s the Pirates’ true star, and having signed him to a long-term deal, he will be their star for years to come. Those MVP credentials? A .341 batting average, .405 OBP, 24 home runs and 16 stolen bases.
Why are they a good underdog? The Orioles haven’t had a winning season since 1997? Boo-hoo says Pittsburgh fans. They haven’t had a winning year since Bonds left them after 1992. The lone bright spot in that period was when Jason Bay won Rookie of the Year, and where’s he been since? Anyone feel like that’s enough to help them forget 19 losing seasons? Anyone? The only true good thing to come from that period was the development of their beautiful stadium, PNC Park. Not only were the Pirates underdogs to start with, they’re the underdogs who have to work the hardest to make the playoffs – and that’s the best type. This team was a joke for nearly 20 years. If they can finish strong, they might start a new legacy.
The Oakland Athletics
Can they win it all? Hot damn, I hope so. (That’s how exciting these Athletics are, I actually wrote those words.) They have the lowest payroll in the majors and they’re currently leading the American League Wild Card race, and are only four games behind the deep and talented Rangers. For non-Athletics’ fans, play this game: Name five Oakland Athletics not named Yoenis Cespedes or Coco Crisp. Go!
Okay, you probably got Josh Reddick. Andrew Bailey? Nope, he’s gone. Bartolo Colon? We’ll accept it, but barely. Mark McGwire? Come on, you’re not even trying.
This is a typical Billy Beane team: a stack of buy-low guys who are coming together and doing nothing but winning. The offense is fun to watch, purely because you have no idea who will do the damage. Yoenis Cespedes has exceeded expectations and rewarded Beane’s faith. Josh Reddick is making the Red Sox feel very, very silly after being the key piece in the Andrew Bailey trade. But the strength of the Athletics is the pitching.
Brett Anderson came back to bolster an already impressive rotation. He has gone 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA since coming off the disabled list, effectively replacing the suspended Colon. Oakland’s starters have the seventh-best ERA at 3.76. Their relievers posted the second-best ERA of 2.81. And, unlike the Pirates, the Athletics have deep pitching pools, so if one of their starters goes down, they can turn to the likes of Dan Strailey, Fautino De Los Santos or Sonny Gray (if they need to rush his development). This is a team that will pitch their way to the playoffs (somewhere by all rights they should have no place being).
Who’s worth watching? Josh Reddick. Apart from making the Red Sox feel lousy, Reddick hits a stack of home runs (28), plays gold-glove defense in right field (UZR 8.9 according to Fangraphs.com) and brings an enthusiastic and youthful energy to the clubhouse. And he makes a pretty great Spider-Man (pay special attention to Crisp’s expression prior to being pied. That’s a man accepting of his fate). Josh Reddick is the embodiment of the Athletics’ team: young, uncaring about being doubted and ignored, and having a heck of a time just winning.
Why are they a good underdog? This is the fairy-tale team; the team all bandwagoners can be forgiven for following. They play in the ugliest ballpark in America, but as long as you can avoid the dirty concrete grandstands, or the less-than-picturesque surroundings, you’ll spot the most exciting team in the game.
“The Athletics are the team owned by Brad Pitt, right?” one of my friends asked (forgive him, we live in Australia). It seems that the “Moneyball” movie may have done this team some good, much like the book it’s based on did years earlier. Maybe it was a nice reminder to the kind of legacy Beane had once been responsible for. (I’m joking.) But if you were to make a movie about one team this year, again it would be these Athletics. They are the poor kids who were given second-hand equipment while they watched their rich neighbors got new gear and star players. But they looked within themselves and… (insert inspirational speech).
Honestly, don’t overthink it. The Athletics aren’t. They’re just here to kick ass and play baseball.
Notable Exclusion: The Tampa Bay Rays
These guys aren’t underdogs. They have all the characteristics of an underdog (low payroll, tough division, only one true star, likable manager, play in a dungeon, and they’re having a winning season) but in truth, they’re the smartest team in baseball and have been for the last few years. You missed the boat. This team isn’t surprising anyone, and while they certainly deserve it, it won’t be a huge shock if they finally win a World Series. (Note: you are allowed to support them if you go out right now and read “The Extra 2 Percent” by Jonah Keri, which is a must-read book detailing how the Rays went from worst to first.)
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