Patriots perfect packaging picks in NFL Draft
The New England Patriots haven’t won a Super Bowl since 2005, and last made a Super Bowl appearance in 2008. Few NFL organizations would call that a drought, but it’s the longest the Pats have gone without a Super Bowl trip since the 1990s.
When teams hit skids such as these, it’s tempting to examine their drafting habits. The Patriots draft like no other team – a hallmark of the New England organization is their propensity to go against the grain at the draft.
For example, the Patriots entered the 2011 NFL Draft in April with a clear weakness. Their third-down defense was third-worst in the league, a significant statistic on a 14-2 team. This year’s draft featured the deepest class of defensive linemen and pass rushers seen in years -Bill Belichick acknowledged it himself. But when the draft was done, the Patriots had selected none of those defensive linemen. Six of their first seven draft picks were offensive players. And on top of that, while the Pats used their 17th-overall selection on Colorado offensive tackleNate Solder, they traded their other first-round pick away to New Orleans – another hallmark of the Pats’ drafting strategy of the past few years.
Belichick, in typical contrarian fashion, explained the draft’s results to the media as dictated by other teams as much as the Patriots themselves.
“You see a lot of players get taken at a certain position in a draft, I think naturally that gives more value to another position, another spot,” he said. “I think you see that in every draft, there is a run on a certain position then that elevates the value of another position” he said.
Mike Perkins, editor of Patriots Gab, said a certain amount of the strategy comes down to Belichick’s clout within the organization, which is unmatched throughout the league. As a result, regardless of the tactic’s successes and failures, don’t expect to see it spreading throughout the league anytime soon.
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“I don’t see others employing this method much, for one main reason: they don’t have the leeway Belichick does,” Perkins said. “He takes a lot of heat for trading down, but since he’s Bill Belichick, he can. Most coaches and general managers have much less room for error, much more pressure to make the right – and popular – decision.”
The popularity of Belichick’s decisions certainly doesn’t concern him. Most analysts saw a competent pass-rusher as the Pats’ most pressing need this draft, and Belichick didn’t pick one.
Perkins said he’s a huge believer in the system, but many faithful fans also had serious doubts in 2009, when the Patriots traded down from 23rd to 26th overall, only to trade down again and miss out on Clay Matthews despite glaring holes at the outside linebacker position. Matthews went 26th overall to the Green Bay Packers.
“At the time, I really wanted Matthews, but it’s tough to argue with the end result,” Perkins said. “With the picks they accumulated from trading down here they got Darius Butler, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman ? [I’m] pretty sure the Patriots wouldn’t select a redo here.”
The following year, in 2010, the Patriots topped many experts’ draft success lists. Devin McCourty, who had seven interceptions in his rookie year, was their lone first-rounder. Others they nabbed such as Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, Jermaine Cunningham andBrandon Spikes were standouts in a 14-2 year. In only two years, the Patriots picked in the second round a total of seven times.
According to Perkins, there are two main reasons Belichick started to trade down in the first place.
“Belichick started trading down for two reasons: one, he believes it takes 63 players to win football games,” Perkins said. “Lots of teams spend the majority of their money on the top third of their roster, but Belichick thinks if his worst 21 players are the best in the league, his team will win most games. So, if he has the opportunity to trade one pick for two picks he’ll do it.”
“Second ? Belichick realized second-round picks are actually more valuable than a first round pick since first rounders get such enormous, long contracts, but they still carry a huge risk of failure. So they’re not really worth it, especially because teams can’t really afford to dedicate such substantial amounts of money each year. That’s why Belichick rarely misses on first-round picks, because he only takes them if he’s very confident they’ll live up the salary.”
The rationale that first-round picks carry more risk, not less, than the rest of the draft helps explain the Patriots’ selection of Solder in April. Belichick clearly sees Solder as a low-risk pick, and it’s hard to blame him. ESPN.com labeled Solder one of their “freak” athletes of the nation heading into the draft. Aside from his on-field successes, the 6’9″, 315-pound offensive lineman hang-cleaned 473 pounds, can run a 4.88 forty and has a 32-inch vertical jump—scary numbers for a 315-pound man.
The Patriots still rely on free agency and trades to build their receiving corps. They also haven’t drafted a running back in the first round since Laurence Maroney in 2006, who turned out to eventually be a disappointment.
Perkins said to look for more additions of spare parts through means other than the draft under the new collective bargaining agreement, whenever it kicks in.
“The new CBA should change the rookie wage scale, so the Patriots might utilize it less in the future or maybe more since the picks will be even more valuable,” he said. “I’d be willing to bet they don’t use it as much in the future since Belichick clearly ramped it up the past three years to rebuild the defense, but in coming years they’ll probably be looking to add valuable spare parts.
Drafting prospects always involves a certain amount of luck. It’s unlikely, for example, that Belichick foresaw Tom Brady’s career trajectory when he drafted him 199th overall in 2000. But Perkins said luck doesn’t have much to do with their success trading down and stockpiling later picks.
“[You] can’t really call it luck, because, especially recently, they’ve been remarkably consistent,” he said. “It seems like Belichick perfected the strategy the past three years, getting great second- and third-rounders, while still managing to draft first-round stars Devin McCourty and Jerod Mayo.”
Regardless of the Patriots’ unconventional methods, it’s hard to argue with results.
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