AHL to NHL success in a post-lockout world
With the NHL still stuck in lockout limbo, many people are focusing their attention on the AHL, hoping that a strong season in the minors from the top young prospects will translate into NHL success for their favorite teams once the puck finally drops.
But does AHL success predict future NHL success?
The Washington Capitals have had a dominant AHL team over the past seven years. The Hershey Bears won three Calder Cups from 2005 to 2010. That string of victories has translated to a strong NHL club, although not one that has been able to go deep into the playoffs.
But not every strong AHL team helps build a strong parent club. The Chicago Wolves had a very good team for many years, making one Calder Cup Final and winning another, yet the Atlanta Thrashers only made the playoffs once and reached 85 points in the standings twice.
Furthermore, since the lockout no Stanley Cup champion has had an AHL affiliate win the Calder Cup in the years prior. Some have come close, however. The Philadelphia Phantoms won the Calder Cup in 2005, and the Flyers came within two games of winning the Stanley Cup five years later. The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins lost in the Calder Cup Final to the Chicago Wolves in 2008, and the very next year the Pittsburgh Penguins won the Stanley Cup.
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The problem is that looking at those individual cases doesn’t tell us anything about teams in general. What if we actually correlate AHL success and NHL success to see if there is a relationship, whether immediately or over the long-term?
The table below shows the correlation between an AHL team’s points and their parent club’s points starting in 2004-05. A higher correlation means AHL success is better predictive of NHL success. A correlation of 1.0 would mean that if an AHL team had 100 points their NHL counterpart would have 100 points. A correlation of 0.0 would mean there is no relationship between the amount of points an AHL team gets and the amount of points their parent team gets.
“Same season” refers to the point correlation between the AHL club and NHL club during the same season (e.g., AHL points in 2004-05 and NHL points in 2004-05). “Season +1” refers to the points correlation between the AHL club in one year and the NHL club the next year (e.g., AHL points in 2004-05 and NHL points in 2005-06).
| Points | |
| Season | Correlation |
| Same Season | 0.0754 |
| Season +1 | 0.2215 |
| Season +2 | 0.2031 |
| Season +3 | 0.2704 |
The above analysis was based on work by Jonathan Willis of Oilers Nation, who did a similar comparison in March, except used goal differential as a measure of team success. Goal differential is correlated with wins, so his analysis should provide a corroborating piece of evidence that AHL success is correlated with future NHL success. The table below is set up the same as the one above.
| Goal Differential | |
| Season | Correlation |
| Same Season | -0.2010 |
| Season +1 | 0.1112 |
| Season +2 | 0.1986 |
| Season +3 | 0.3461 |
In both cases, regardless of whether you use points or goal differential as a measure of success, there is a positive correlation between AHL success and NHL success, one which increases over time.
In the same season there is almost no correlation between AHL points and NHL points, although there is a negative correlation when you use goal differential as a measure of success. Although it’s hard to ascertain for certain, one reason for this may be that strong AHL teams come at the expense of their NHL counterparts. Many times good AHL teams are made up of young, talented prospects; players that have conceivably been drafted with high draft picks — a product of a bad NHL team, and since they are playing in the AHL, can’t help the parent club.
Additionally, the data shows that the correlation between AHL and NHL success increases over time, and the NHL club is at its strongest three years after a solid AHL season. One explanation could be that good players on the AHL team three years ago have now made the NHL and established themselves as good NHLers, thus helping their NHL club mimic the success of their former AHL affiliates.
But this AHL season is not like most others. Because it is a lockout year there is an influx of NHL-quality talent in the AHL. Does this mean that the correlation between AHL and NHL success will be even stronger since certain players in the AHL will be able to jump right in and contribute in the NHL? Yes, in fact (although it should be noted that we’re only working with a one-year sample).
In the first year after the 2004-05 lockout, there was a 0.2804 points correlation between AHL teams during the lockout and NHL teams in 2005-06. Similarly, there was a 0.3479 goal differential correlation between AHL and NHL teams. In summary, in most seasons an AHL team’s success doesn’t best predict NHL success until three years in the future, during a lockout an AHL team’s success best predicts NHL success almost immediately.
Although a correlation of 0.3 is only moderate in strength, this data should be enough to give you hope when reading the AHL standings, especially if you are a Carolina Hurricanes fan smiling at the Charlotte Checkers’ early 6-1-0-1 record.
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