Does third-year jinx loom for successful sophomores?

Greg Thomson
October 21, 2011

A common trend for young players in the NHL is to get off to a slow start in their second season, often dipping in production and seeing their point totals take a hit. For others, however, this so called ‘sophomore slump’ is nonexistent and the true difficulties lie in their third season in the league.

While the ‘third-year jinx’ only affects a fraction of NHLers, there are several players who have experienced relative success in their first two years but may see their output curtailed as they enter their third season.

Entering the league as a relatively ripe, physically-mature 20 year old, Philadelphia’s James van Riemsdyk came with heavy expectations as a former second-overall pick. Despite only posting 35 points in 78 games as a rookie, van Riemsdyk gained a more prominent role in the Flyers top nine as a second-year player, notching 40 points, including seven points in 11 playoff games.

Over the offseason, the Flyers, in rather surprising fashion, dealt their two biggest stars and on-ice leaders in Mike Richards and Jeff Carter. In order to fill the void, the team is banking on JVR and Claude Giroux to elevate their games to new levels.

What the team realizes is that the former has only 75 career NHL points, and developing into a first-line power forward is something that not many anticipated would have happened this early in his career, but rather at a steady pace over time.

Another third-year player, also playing in the Eastern Conference, is Sabres defenseman Tyler Myers, who, in all accounts, will avoid the third-year jinx. Although he had 11 fewer points last season compared to his first, Myers added muscle and began to grow into his size, an improvement that enhanced his play with and without the puck.

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Andy Boron from Die By The Blade thinks Myers will build on his play as a rookie and forget the struggles of last season.

“I don’t see the play of Myers slipping at all this year. He’s already been through a pretty large sophomore slump last season.”

While 37 points is nothing to be ashamed of, Myers has the potential to annually tally as many as 50 points, clearly putting him in contention for the Norris Trophy, at least in a few years.

“The points will come, and in his third year he should continue to improve defensively as well. It may not be his Norris Trophy-contending year that Sabres fans are expecting, but I think he’ll approach the numbers of his rookie year, if not exceed them.”

Above all, Myers will benefit from the addition of veteran blue liner Robyn Regehr and the influence that he will have on him.

“I will be looking for Myers to continue the improvement in his physical game we saw last year while playing alongside Robyn Regehr this season. While he only has one point this season [through three games], he’s already been more of a physical presence than he was last season.”

Toward the end of last season, Myers also looked to grow into his frame after what Boron describes as a “sluggish” start. Regardless his point totals, he will be counted on to lead the Sabres defense, which has the makings to be among the East’s elite with the additions of Regehr and Christian Erhoff.

Rounding out the third-year players to watch is former AHL star Jimmy Howard, who has gradually risen to become the Red Wings starting goaltender. Howard is another product of the Red Wings affiliate in Grand Rapids, which has churned out an impressive cast of future stars, including Darren Helm and Justin Adbelkader.

Although Howard has played at least one NHL game in every season since 2005-06, except for 2006-07, he only took hold of a full-time spot two seasons ago, and has posted back to back 37-win seasons, a very impressive feat for a goalie.

Despite not having Brian Rafalski patrolling the blue line, Howard still has a quality group of experienced defenseman in front of him, but may have difficulties reaching the 37-win plateau again.

Mainstay Detroit blogger Paul Kukla, owner of the ever popular Kukla’s Korner website, thinks the Wings’ goaltender is poised to have his best season yet.

“Despite the possibility of the third-year jinx, I believe Howard will have his best year to date,” Kukla said. “The Rafalski retirement will come into play on the defensive side of the game, [but] he’ll be missed more for his offensive output, especially on the power play.”

With that being said, Ian White is capable of shouldering the load and bringing a similar skill set as Rafalski.

“They’ve always said to be the Red Wings goalie, you just have to stop the shots that are expected to be stopped,” said Kukla. “Anything else is a bonus.”

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The Author:

Greg Thomson