Down but not out: Oregon’s 2011-12 reclamation project
One of the clear perils of the No. 3 and No. 4-ranked teams facing off in a season opener is that one of them has to lose. This past week, that was the case with the third-ranked Oregon Ducks, who fell 40-27 to the depleted but still dangerous fourth-ranked LSU Tigers in their first game Saturday. That’s left plenty of feelings of doom and gloom in Eugene, and those feelings are justified. However, Oregon’s season is far from over, and there are still a lot of good things the Ducks can accomplish.
In most other leagues and sports, it’s easy to shrug off a loss in the opener thanks to the minimal amount each game counts for in the big picture, but that isn’t the case in college football. Thanks to the NCAA’s refusal thus far to implement a playoff system, only two teams are chosen for the national championship game, and they’re chosen by combining human and computer rankings that consider a team’s regular-season performance, strength of schedule, marquee wins and other factors. Thus, to get there, you frequently have to run the table, as the Ducks did last year to set up a matchup with fellow undefeated school Auburn (one they lost 22-19). A one-loss campaign usually isn’t good enough, so Oregon’s championship aspirations may be done for this season. That’s a tough pill to swallow after just one game, but it’s the way things are at the moment.
However, even though we assume that the Ducks’ BCS championship dreams are dead, their season is anything but. There’s still plenty for them to play for, including the championship of the new Pac-12 and the Rose Bowl berth likely to accompany it. Even if they come up short there, there still are chances to crash the BCS bowls as an at-large team or to grab an invite to another almost-as-prestigious bowl. Their schedule is also reasonably favorable, and they’ll likely be seen as the favorite heading into every game except the Nov. 12 clash at Stanford.
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It’s not just the Ducks who are down at the moment, either, it’s much of their conference, and that could auger well for them. The Ducks’ lone remaining non-conference games are at home against Nevada and Missouri State, certainly not guaranteed victories but not terribly difficult matchups.
Their conference slate doesn’t appear all that imposing either, except for the aforementioned Stanford game, and the issues much of the rest of the conference’s teams have demonstrated so far bode well for the Ducks. Don’t rule them out against the Cardinal, either: Oregon has a tough defense that generally held one Heisman favorite and eventual winner (Auburn’s Cam Newton) in check, so who’s to say they can’t do the same against Stanford’s Andrew Luck? Their inexperienced players should improve over the course of the year as well. If the Ducks can combine a great defensive showing with strong offense from the likes of their own Heisman candidate in LaMichael James, they, not the Cardinal, might just be the ones representing the North in the inaugural Pac-12 championship game and coming away with the conference’s top BCS berth as a result.
It’s also too early to definitively say that a 12-1 campaign might not be enough to get the Ducks into the national championship game. Yes, last season’s game saw the 12-0 Ducks facing the 13-0 Tigers, and the 2009-10 season saw a pair of 13-0 teams (Alabama and Texas) collide, but 2008-09 saw 12-1 Florida beat 12-1 Oklahoma. The 2007-08 season provides an even better example for Oregon fans to take consolation from, as late-season anarchy near the top of the standings saw 11-2 LSU make the top game and beat 11-1 Ohio State.
Oregon’s odds of making it back to college football’s title game certainly aren’t great, but crazier things have happened. Even if they don’t get there, though, there’s still a lot to play for. For Ducks players, coaches and fans, the key is to stay focused on what’s in front of them rather than complain about the LSU loss. All they can offer is their best efforts to win every remaining game on the schedule. If they’re able to stay focused on the future, this could still be a very good season for them after all.
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