World Series predictions: Philadelphia Phillies and who cares?
If asked to guess the 2012 World Series champion, there’s no prediction safer than the Philadelphia Phillies.
There are plenty of reasons to support such a prophecy: Five straight National League East titles and playoff appearances, an MLB-best 102-60 record last year and a talented roster that includes the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins.
But after back-to-back playoff upsets, are the Phillies as secure as they appear to be?
If you ask any website that offers betting odds, the answer is yes. Thespread.com currently has Philadelphia at 5/1 odds to win the World Series. Sportributor.com posted the same probability in February. However, these websites never base their decisions on the mindsets of manager Charlie Manual and his players.
Upsets happen. A very select few expected the Phillies to lose the 2010 NL Pennant to the San Francisco Giants. When it occurs two years in a row, as it did with the 2011 NL Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals, one can only wonder what kind of pressure is felt by the Phillies to ensure it doesn’t happen for a third-straight year.
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Rich Baxter of FightinPhillies.com notes the team hasn’t addressed their disappointing results from the previous two seasons. Regardless, he feels the Phillies are positively focused, regardless of the past, their talent or their high salaries.
“Sometimes, winning championships aren’t always accomplished by assembling the highest-paid players on the team,” says Baxter. “This 2012 team isn’t under any increased pressure to win other than the fact that they want to win and have the tools again to do so. But they must go out there on the field and prove it.”
If pressure and stress doesn’t cause a collapse, injuries might. The Phillies will likely be without Ryan Howard for the first two months of season. The All-Star first baseman had surgery last month to deal with an infection that developed after a procedure on his left Achilles tendon in October. The tendon was injured during Game 5 of the NLDS. The infection has impeded Howard’s recovery and has forced him to wear a walking boot.
“We’re just being really cautious with it [Howard’s Achilles],” Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki on March 9. “The wound itself has to heal. He’s doing fine. We just want to make sure it heals. It’ll heal.”
Howard hit 33 home runs and added 116 RBIs last season. That’s certainly nowhere near the production he put up between 2006 and 2009. They’re still impressive numbers and his absence from the starting lineup will be felt. However, Baxter feels the Phillies will survive without their slugger.
“The Phillies have done quite well when missing a key member on the team in the past couple seasons,” explains Baxter. “Ryan is a notorious late bloomer when it comes to hitting, as he gets better when the weather gets warmer.
“I personally think that any one player doesn’t make or break a team. Will his absence be felt? Yes, for the short term, but not enough to cause excessive harm to the Phillies’ 2012 season.”
Along with Howard, second baseman Chase Utley is dealing with an injured knee. And while those players are nursing their bruises, their teammates are getting to know their new additions.
Several players joined the Phillies during the offseason through trades and free agency. The most notable was closer Jonathan Papelbon, who signed a four-year contract worth just over $50 million. Formerly of the Boston Red Sox, Papelbon picked up 31 saves in 2011. Other new Phillies include veteran Jim Thome (his second stint with Philadelphia), outfielders Juan Pierre and Laynce Nix, infielder Ty Wigginton and pitchers Dontrelle Willis and Dave Bush.
Baxter describes the new acquisitions as subdued when compared to previous offseasons. They will also have distinct responsibilities.
“Papelbon will do well in the NL, as he’s been in the AL for his whole career,” says Baxter. “Wigginton and Nix will fill in as needed off the bench or covering injuries. Thome is probably in his last year as a player and is a fan favorite.
“Willis and Pierre are players I really liked when they were younger, but they are both out to prove that they are still able to play in MLB.”
The reasons for the implosion exist, but that doesn’t stop Philadelphia from being a contender in 2012.
“It’s hard to envision enough things going wrong to have them finish below the Braves, Marlins and Nationals,” wrote Matt Snyder in a March 2 post on CBSSpots.com’s Eye on Baseball blog. “Maybe two of the three – in a worst-case scenario – but not all three.”
The Phillies do not appear to care or worry about the past. Sure, the team is older; but they are an experienced group and likely realize it’s better to look forward than backward. Philadelphia’s dominance might be on the decline, but it will be a while before they slip down the NL East standings.
What happens in the playoffs is a different matter.
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