The Pittsburgh Pirates: Beating Michael Jordan
The Pirates are doing everything right and it might amount to nothing.
They’ve invested in their future by signing star centerfielder Andrew McCutchen to a long-term deal and with shrewd drafting are beginning to see the first light of success. They have a star to build around and two top-of-the-rotation arms in the pipeline. With a few more key pieces, they’ll be primed to make a playoff run; their first since losing synthetic slugger Barry Bonds in 1992. But in order to do so, they’ll have to overcome a big obstacle.
If Bonds’ success had been chemical-free, the sporting community would be mentioning him in the same breath as the man whose rule could ruin the Pirates’ playoff hopes.
They’re about to discover that even the best rebuilding efforts can succumb to “The Rule of Jordan.”
The theory is this: you can spend every second of every day preparing, practicing and working toward becoming the best. You can invest all the time, money, and effort in the world. You can buy the best philosophies and implement the best systems with the best people in the best environment. But in the end, no matter how hard you work, no matter how much you deserve it, a Michael Jordan might be waiting to shove your head back under the water. Just ask John Stockton and the ‘97 and ‘98 Jazz.
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The Pirates are preparing to face a Michael Jordan in the National League Central. He’s just won the World Series and with a very strong roster and even stronger prospect board, he’s ready to continue his dominance and ensure the Pirates stay beneath the waves a little longer.
In their attempt to seek alternate paths to the playoffs, the Pirates encounter several Michael Jordans waiting in the National League East, with a combination of the Phillies, Braves, Marlins and Nationals using up the final wild card spots.
For the first half of last season the Pirates made a run and looked like a team that might finally crack the .500 winning percentage. The second half was not as kind and by season’s end they ranked near the bottom of most hitting and pitching statistics. But one thing cannot be denied, they’re getting better.
In 2012 though, the Central will come down to the Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals, and possibly the Milwaukee Brewers – depending on how they adjust to life without Prince Fielder.
St. Louis will have three dominant starting pitchers in Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia, as well as a lineup they feel can be successful despite the loss of Albert Pujols. Carlos Beltran will make up for some of the lost offense and the development of young sluggers David Freese, Allen Craig and Jon Jay should keep the Cardinals in the playoff hunt. Their toughest competition won’t be the Pirates but rather the Reds, who are hoping to make the most of a Pujols-less division.
Cincinnati has seemingly gone all in this season, trading their best hitting prospect for a potential frontline starter. Their sense of urgency is understandable; they need to win while Joey Votto is around because all indicators point to him leaving at the end of 2013.
Professionals are in the game to win a World Series (well, that and money) and if they don’t foresee their teams as being able to achieve this, they will look elsewhere. The Pirates were able to avoid this pitfall by signing McCutchen to a six-year, $51.5 million contract. McCutchen joins a group of young players who have been locked up by their teams in long-term contracts and will be crucial to their playoff efforts. Players like Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Upton and Matt Kemp. Kemp is the best comparative player in the group. Both McCutchen and Kemp are premier centerfielders, and while Kemp came off an MVP-like season (he was my pick), McCutchen, who has the talent to rival Kemp, is still a few years from emulating that kind of production.
The contract is an excellent one for the Pirates. McCutchen has always exhibited the exciting tools that get teams excited, but recently he’s started to show signs that he’s ready for an explosion. Last year it was a defensive explosion. In his first two years in the bigs, despite having great athleticism, advanced metrics rated his defence low.
Last year, McCutchen transformed into one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game, posting an ultimate zone rating (UZR – roughly how many runs a player saved or gave up through their defence) of 3.5. To understand the transformation you only have to look at his 2010 UZR rating: -13.7. Now that he rates in the upper echelon of defensive centerfielders, his bat becomes even more valuable, and it is an exciting bat.
He possesses that exhilarating combination of power and speed that makes fans, players and coaches swoon. When tracking his three years in the majors, you can see his approach at the plate has been steadily improving, making 2012 a prime year for a McCutchen breakout. His home run totals have risen from 12 in 2009, to 16 in 2010 and finally 23 in 2011. His base stealing ability dipped somewhat in 2011, dropping from 33 in 2010 to 23. But the speed is there, placing him in the unique group of players with the potential of posting 30/30 seasons. Remember, Kemp went from 19 steals in 2010 to 40, and a similar output for McCutchen is possible.
McCutchen’s walk percentage increased from 10.7 percent to 13.1 percent. And while his strikeout percentage increased too, it’s an indicator his plate discipline is progressing to a near-elite level. If he can decrease the strikeouts while maintaining that walk rate, a .290 batting average and .380 OBP are attainable figures. This further indicates the value of McCutchen. Kemp, who will be earning more than double what McCutchen earns, put up an 8.7 WAR last season. McCutchen – who is two years younger – put up 5.7 WAR, and many experts believe he’ll continue to improve. This means the Pirates will be getting a centerfielder who produces at a similar level to Kemp for a fraction of the cost. That value will be crucial toward building a winning team.
If the Pirates are going to dethrone the Cardinals, they’ll need their two top pitching prospects to develop the way everyone expects them to. Gerrit Cole, the first-overall pick of last year’s draft is their best prospect and one day could be duelling with the Cardinals’ Shelby Miller. He has great stuff and will be the face of a strong pitching team. The other key pitcher in their system is Jameson Taillon. Another big fireballing righty, Taillon and Cole will form one of the best one-two punches in baseball. But if they’re going to lead the Pirates to playoff success they’ll need some help from their lineup, and right now the Pirates are lacking.
Josh Bell is their best hitting prospect but his development will take a few more years, and by that time McCutchen may have become frustrated as the only All-Star hitter in their team. The Pirates will need to rely on a return to form from two former top prospects. Pedro Alvarez needs to start hitting and Jose Talbata needs to stay healthy, and if they do these things, it gives the Pirates three young bats to build around.
So how can the Pirates make the most of their situation? Look at what other successful teams are doing and copy them to the point that it’s natural. Then improve on the system.
Draft like the Rays and follow their lead when dealing with young stars by locking them up to long-term deals as best they can afford. Give Cole and Taillon the Matt Moore contract and find the hitting pieces to surround McCutchen with.
Scout international players like the Rangers and Yankees. The Pirates won’t always be able to compete with them financially, but if they can add some international talent, they’ll have more parts to work with – whether it be using them in trades or letting them develop and help the team.
Avoid giving money to aging veterans. Instead, use it on the draft and international signings. Don’t sign Pat Burrell or Aubrey Huff. And for that matter, don’t sign any player who just won a World Series. Players who’ve recently earned a ring are often overvalued, and the Pirates can’t afford to overspend in free agency.
Use low-risk moves to improve. They’ve already done this with the A.J. Burnett trade. This is the best move their organisation made last offseason – his injury is unfortunate. Getting Burnett out of the lights of New York and back onto a young, energised National League team is a fine move and should benefit not just Burnett himself, but also give the Pirates fans an exciting pitcher to watch until Cole and Taillon arrive.
The Pirates also have the best fans in baseball. You know these guys are the most hardcore, loyal group in the majors because they’ve stuck by their team despite numerous losing seasons. The Pirates aren’t going to win next year, but they’re going to start to show signs of being competitive.
Michael Jordan could still ruin the party. The Cardinals have a stacked minor league system and will be ready to compete for at least the same period as the Pirates. Right now they’re in a better position to win. But what’s the key difference this time? The Pirates are nearly ready to win too, and not just once. The Pirates will consistently push the Cardinals and because of that, they might finally reward those diehard fans.
They’ve committed to a great manager for young guys in Clint Hurdle. They’re drafting well and seem to be focused on their long-term future. They’re making good trades and avoiding risky contracts. If they add a few more hitting prospects, this is a Pirates team that might soon be able to punch Michael Jordan in the face and shove him off his podium.
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