Champions’ plight: Repeating in the Stanley Cup Final
Repeating as Stanley Cup champions is remarkably difficult in the salary cap era. The dynasties that dominated the 70s and 80s are but a distant memory. In their place are one-year champions who not only struggle to repeat, but sometimes fail to qualify for the playoffs entirely.
Since the lockout, three champions have failed to pass the first round in their repeat year, while the 2007 Carolina Hurricanes didn’t even make the playoffs after their ’06 championship. The only team that has even ventured beyond the second round is the 2009 Detroit Red Wings who made it all the way back to the Stanley Cup Finals before losing in seven games to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Because of the hard cap in the NHL, teams can’t possibly re-sign every key piece of their championship team. With the added spotlight of the Stanley Cup Finals, quality play becomes magnified, which leads to increased interest in free agents come July 1.
Franchises are forced to make hard decisions about the players that are important moving forward and, conversely, those that are expendable.
Last year’s Blackhawks were gutted in the off-season in order to get the team under the salary cap. By the start of the 2010-11 season, Kris Versteeg, Andrew Ladd, Ben Eager, Dustin Byfuglien, Brent Sopel, Adam Burish, John Madden and Antti Niemi were all playing elsewhere.
The 2009 Penguins didn’t lose nearly as many players, yet still failed to pass the second round of the playoffs when spring 2010 rolled around.
Even the slightest subtractions become important losses when other teams across the league add players over the summer and improve their rosters.
How likely is it that either of this year’s finalists are back vying for the Stanley Cup next year?
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According to CapGeek, the Vancouver Canucks have eight unrestricted free agents and three restricted free agents heading into the off-season. The Canucks have only 13 players signed next season and have only slightly less than $14 million in available cap space (although more if the cap limit increases).
The Canucks’ two most important free agents are Kevin Bieksa and Christian Ehrhoff, two players whose agents are certainly giddy with excitement after their clients’ tremendous playoffs.
Ehrhoff is second in playoff scoring by a defenceman with 11 after scoring 50 during the regular season. Bieksa has emerged as the Canucks’ No. 1 defenceman after having his name thrown around in trade rumours all summer. Bieksa has done it all for the Canucks in the playoffs – scoring big goals, making crisp passes, blocking shots and even fighting.
Both players are likely to command $5 million on the open market, so the Canucks may have to decide between the two, unless they can find a taker for Keith Ballard’s burdensome contract, which is highly unlikely.
Roster spots are sure to open up for young players like Cody Hodgson, Jordan Schroeder and Chris Tanev (who has filled in admirably on the blueline during the Stanley Cup Finals).
As long as the Canucks have Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Ryan Kesler and Roberto Luongo they will be competitive, but with only four defencemen currently signed for next season (two of which are Ballard and Aaron Rome), repeating will be difficult.
The playoffs are a time when teams need deep lineups to succeed. High-end talent alone isn’t sufficient for success. Just look at how the Bruins have seemingly shut down Kesler and the Sedins during the Cup Finals. If the Canucks lose their depth, they’ll be unable to repeat as champions, just as the Hawks were this season.
Alternatively, this year’s other Stanley Cup finalist, the Boston Bruins, are actually in better shape to find themselves in next year’s championship series.
The Bruins have only four unrestricted free agents and one restricted free agent. Because of Tomas Kaberle’s disappearance, during the postseason none of the UFAs will be a huge loss to the Bruins. Only Brad Marchand is due for a significant raise.
With 18 players signed and just over $7 million in cap space (more if Marc Savard returns to the LTIR), the Bruins are in an enviable position heading into 2011-12. Especially so with another top-10 selection in this year’s draft, in addition to last year’s second overall selection Tyler Seguin.
The Bruins’ core is filled with smart, two-way players who, aside from Tim Thomas and Zdeno Chara, are all under 30.
If the Bruins are bold, they could even try to trade Thomas who will be at peak value after dominating both the regular season and the playoffs. It may sound unlikely, but Thomas is 37 years old and 24-year-old backup Tuukka Rask has already proven he can excel in the number one role. Trading Thomas would fill other holes on the Bruins’ roster and set them up for long-term success.
Of course, the Philadelphia Flyers entered this season with largely the same team that made the 2010 Stanley Cup Finals and they were unable to go further than the second round.
Thus, even if both teams are able to keep their rosters largely intact there is no guarantee they will be back in the Finals. Almost everything has to go right in a Stanley Cup season, which makes repeating improbable.
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