Classic cinema, samurai and the NBA MVP
Ever see Akira Kurosawa’s Rashomon?
It’s a great movie, even if it’s a little confusing. It goes a little something like this: a woodcutter tells a man about his experience finding a dead samurai in the woods. He tells four versions of the story, three he heard during a trial – the thief who killed the samurai, the samurai’s wife and the dead samurai’s – before telling what he saw happen.
The basics of the story check out, but the details are all different and by film’s end, the viewer is left to decide which version really happened in the woods – or if there’s any truth to any of them whatsoever.
It’s no small wonder that the movie’s name has become something of a cliche, a phrase tossed about whenever a story comes at you from two or three angles that don’t add up and change each time you look at them.
A while ago, I suggested that Derrick Rose was in line for this year’s NBA MVP. A little further back, also suggested Dwight Howard might be. I suggested some other people might be worthy of consideration too.
But now, with the season over, Rose and Howard are the two biggest candidates. When I wrote each piece, I wasn’t sure exactly who the award should go to, and to be honest, I’m not sure now.
The question in this MVP race isn’t really about which player is better in a vacuum, since both have games that aren’t really comparable. And it’s not really about stats or wins, either. It’s been said by better writers than I that this MVP race is about the best story.
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Story one: My gut tells me that Derrick Rose is the most valuable player, that without him there isn’t any way the Bulls are this good. If he goes down – not Carlos Boozer or Joakim Noah – they maybe limp into the postseason, but there’s no way they clinch the best record in the NBA.
Look at his stats: he leads the Bulls in points and assists and has the most Win Shares on the NBA’s best team. Rose’s assist percentage is nearly 39% and his usage percentage is just above 32 – those are both numbers of somebody who’s very important to their team. On a league-wide level, only one player ranks above him in usage percentage and six in assist percentage.
Put another way, Rose is a key part of the Bulls offense, which is basically run through him, and played a big role in his team’s success. When players like Noah and Boozer went down – missing a combined 57 games – Rose was there. In January, for instance, when Noah missed the whole month, Rose’s scoring average went up as his assist numbers went down – and the Bulls went 12-4. As the team changed, his role changed as well, and the Bulls rolled into the playoffs at the top of their game: 62 wins, the second-highest SRS in the NBA and the best defensive rating.
Isn’t the MVP supposed to reflect the player who’s best at putting his team over the top? The best player on the league’s best team? Derrick Rose is the NBA’s MVP for 2011.
Story two: My head tells me that Dwight Howard is the most important player in the NBA. One reason is the tired cliche that defence wins championships – and nobody in the NBA puts up better defensive numbers than Howard. Another is how his numbers compare to Rose – but I’m getting ahead of myself.
Howard has the NBA’s best defensive rating. He’s third in the league in blocks. Not only does he lead the NBA in defensive Win Shares, he’s better than everybody else by two full wins – the same distance between Kevin Durant and Chris Bosh. As a team, the Magic allow the fourth-fewest points per game in the NBA.
As well, his team is far from enviable – and was basically blown up midseason. Where Rose has Noah and Boozer alongside him, Howard split time alongside Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis, followed by Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu. Yet here are the Magic in the postseason with a 52-30 record. They are here because of Howard; isn’t that what an MVP is?
It’s interesting to see how he compares to Rose, too. Howard has a higher PER, better shooting numbers (in both True Shooting and Effective Field Goal percentage) and his usage is only slightly behind Rose’s. But where he really stands out is through defence.
Yes, Howard has better defensive number, but consider this argument in a New York Times blog post: the Bulls are the league’s best defensive team and their defense improves with him off the court. It raises an interesting question as to why the Bulls are so successful – does it have more to do with coaching and team play than Rose? There aren’t any such questions around Howard. He should be the MVP for 2010-11.
Story three: It’s not a popular option to admit, but neither Howard nor Rose are MVP.
It’s one of those more obvious solutions nobody really wants to admit: the league’s most valuable player is LeBron James. In a pressure cooker of a season, playing under a media spotlight all but unprecedented – take ESPN‘s Heat Index, for instance – he’s had another great season, leading the NBA in both Win Shares and PER. One particular webste – The City used a statistic called EZPM and found that James has the highest wins above replacement player in the NBA.
One can go a little deeper than that with his stats: his usage percentage is about the same as teammate Dwyane Wade, but his assist and shooting percentages are higher, for instance.
And the Heat are far from slouches. Although they don’t have the most wins or the best offensive or defensive ratings in the NBA, they do have the highest SRS rank. In that sense, it’s not a stretch to say James is the best player on the league’s best team.
I can understand why he isn’t a popular choice for MVP. From The Decision and the “taking my talents to South Beach” through when he predicted a string of titles before a game had even been played, his PR has been far from ideal. Even in the season, he’s played the heel, like when his Heat destroyed Cleveland for a national TV audience.
It’s foolish to really believe lines about how he’s the most hated man in the NBA (after all, he has the best selling jersey) but the narrative he’s had this season – spurning a local team, going to Miami in search of a title, announcing his decision on live national television – doesn’t make for as compelling a story as either Rose’s or Howard’s do.
But a story doesn’t have to be good to be right. And as hard as it can be to swallow, LeBron James is the league’s MVP.
So, do you believe that Derrick Rose is the MVP? Do you believe Howard is? Or is it James?
It’s like the movie – which of the woodcutter’s stories do you believe? And most importantly, what is the final truth? In Rashomon, it’s implied that truth is relative; each person’s story reflects what they truly believed happened, even as their stories conflict.
Who is the league’s MVP? It all depends on what the voters are willing to accept and believe and, most likely, whichever story sounds best.
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