Can the Tampa Bay Rays win the AL East?

Losing a significant number of players over the course of an offseason can have a serious impact on any franchise, especially when those players are substantial reasons why said franchise is one of the best in Major League Baseball.

After losing a grand total of 16 players who played various roles with the club in 2010 – including a pair of team icons and what seems like an entire bullpen – it would be an understatement to say that the Tampa Bay Rays had to alter their roster over this offseason – reconstruct their roster, is more like it.

Yet, despite the overhaul, with all eyes on the Boston Red Sox to win the American League East in 2011, the Rays could be just as much of a threat to take the division as ever.

Though the signings of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon are the most notable moves the club has made this winter, the only real way to gauge just how well this roster-in-transition will fare in 2011 is to consider everything.

Earlier last month, the Rays traded right-handed starter Matt Garza, a rotation staple who logged at least 200 innings in each of the last two seasons, along with a pair of minor leaguers, to the Chicago Cubs for a package of prospects headlined by pitcher Chris Archer and shortstop Hak-Ju Lee.

The month prior, Jason Bartlett – a shortstop who regressed from his 2009 form in 2010 – was sent to the San Diego Padres for promising infielder Cole Figueroa and relievers Brandon Gomes, Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell.

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But the transactions affecting the Rays weren’t limited to the trading block. They also lost five position players via free agency.

Carl Crawford, Tampa’s longest-tenured player dating back to 2002, signed a well-publicized seven-year deal worth $142 million with the Boston Red Sox, while Carlos Pena, a slugging first baseman who averaged 36 home runs and 101 RBI over his four seasons with the Rays, signed on for one year at $10 million with the Chicago Cubs.

But it isn’t just superstars that the club will have to do without in 2011. Outfielder Brad Hawpe departed via the open market for the San Diego Padres, as with Gabe Kapler who signed a minor league contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Catcher Dioner Navarro, who surrendered his role as the primary catcher for the Rays in 2010, also defected to the Dodgers on a one-year deal of his own.

Additionally, Rocco Baldelli retired, and both Willy Aybar and reliever Lance Cormier were non-tendered last December.

If that wasn’t enough, the Rays had no other choice but to rebuild their bullpen from the ground up as well, as a substantial chunk of their relief pitchers latched on with new clubs via free agency.

The most noticeable absence in the 2011 bullpen will be all-star closer Rafael Soriano, who left for the greener pastures of the AL East rival New York Yankees (at three years and $35 million, no less), while Joaquin Benoit cashed in with the Tigers, Grant Balfour signed on with Oakland, Randy Choate with Florida, Dan Wheeler in Boston, and Chad Qualls in San Diego.

When you look at it on paper, a total of eight pitchers, four infielders and four outfielders from the Rays’ 2010 roster found new homes for next season, but what’s interesting is that the 2010 AL East champions – a team that won 96 games last season – could actually be better this year than they were in 2010.

How?

Pitching is what wins ballgames, and pitching is the most obvious reason why the Rays will seriously compete for the AL East crown in 2011.

Excluding Garza, the Rays will open next season with the exact same starting rotation as they had in 2010, consisting of Cy Young Award runner-up David Price, James Shields, Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis, the latter of whom finished fourth in American League Rookie of the Year voting in 2010.

The real pitching story for next season, though, is about the guy that will likely replace Garza in the starting rotation: Jeremy Hellickson.

Hellickson, a fourth-round pick by the Rays in the 2005 draft, was ranked as the Rays’ top prospect by Baseball America and the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball by the league itself.

After going 12-3 with a 2.45 ERA in 21 starts for Triple-A Durham, Hellickson – who owns a career minor league ERA of 2.71 in 103 starts (589.1 innings) – finally got the call to make his Major League debut on Aug. 2.

He never looked back, going 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA in four starts at the Major League level, lasting at least six innings and giving up three earned runs or less in each of them. He easily could have made the Rays’ roster out of spring training, but Rays management ordered him to start the year in Durham to work on his pitches even more.

The result? Now Hellickson, who initially had two good pitches and an average third pitch, will open the 2011 season with five above-average pitches. He’s mastered a four-seam fastball that can touch 94 mph, a knee-buckling curveball, a changeup, cutter, and two-seam fastball.

Hellickson will be a fine replacement for Garza despite not pitching as fast, because his off-speed repertoire is superior.

At shortstop, replacing the departed Jason Bartlett is Reid Brignac, who will take over everyday duties in 2011. Brignac, who split time at second base and shortstop in 2010, posted virtually identical numbers to Bartlett last season.

As far as designated hitters are concerned, the Rays used a combination of Willy Aybar, Pat Burrell, and Hank Blalock in 2010. Sadly, Blalock was the most outstanding performer, hitting an unimpressive .254/.319/.349 line in only 26 games.

Enter Manny Ramirez, who hit .298/.409/.460 in 90 games split between the Dodgers and the Chicago White Sox.

While Ramirez’s career .313/.411/.586 line is deceiving at this stage of his career, and his ability to hit for power has dropped, he can still get on base better than the majority of the league.

His addition, regardless of any regression, is a definite upgrade for the Rays at the position, as he’ll surely top the 2010 performances from the three men he’s been chosen to replace as DH.

Left fielder Johnny Damon, signed at the same time as Ramirez and announced on Feb. 1, was added by the Rays to help ease the loss of Crawford to the division rival Red Sox.

Damon saw his power drop significantly in 2010, hitting just eight home runs in 145 games during his first season as a member of the Detroit Tigers, but he still managed a .271 batting average, .355 on-base percentage, and 36 doubles.

While the absence of Crawford, an unmistakably special player, is significant, his departure will far from cripple the organization as they also have speedy Desmond Jennings waiting in the wings, considered an outfielder of the future for the franchise. Jennings owns a career .299/.384/.441 line over five minor league seasons, including 89 stolen bases between 2009 and 2010.

The other position player on the Rays’ 2010 roster that departed via free agency, Pena, left a hole a gaping hole at first base.

Last season was an interesting one for Pena. Despite managing 28 home runs and 84 RBI, he achieved career lows in batting average (.196) and slugging percentage (.407), with his lowest amount of hits (95) and doubles (18) in a season since 2002. His batting average and on-base percentage have dipped in each of the last four seasons as well, another red flag.

Dan Johnson, likely Pena’s replacement, was called up to the Rays in August after hitting .303 with 30 home runs and 95 RBI in 98 games for Triple-A Durham. He wasn’t spectacular during his stint in 2010, hitting .198/.343/.414 in 40 games, but he projects to strike out half as much as Pena did at the Major League level and should be able to produce very similar numbers.

The only actual question mark that exists for the team after all of their offseason losses is their bullpen, an unpredictable part of any Major League Baseball team.

Replacing lights out closer Soriano is familiar face J.P. Howell, a left-hander who was unable to pitch at all in 2010 due to a shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery in May. The Rays are hoping he returns to his 2008-09 form, where he logged a 2.48 ERA and 171 strikeouts in 156 innings.

Replacing setup men Balfour and Benoit are free agent additions Joel Peralta and Kyle Farnsworth.

Peralta was downright nasty with the Washington Nationals last season, limiting opponents to a .170 average in 49 innings, while Farnsworth becomes the Rays’ hardest-throwing pitcher at 95 mph or higher. In 64.2 innings split between the Kansas City Royals and Atlanta Braves last season, Farnsworth managed a 3.34 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, and 8.5 K/9.

Internal candidates Andy Sonnanstine, Mike Ekstrom, and highly-touted prospect Jake McGee will receive the majority of the remaining innings left behind by Wheeler and Choate, which leaves Russell and Ramos, acquired in the Bartlett trade, to fight over whatever is left.

An important thing to note is that, despite down years at first base, shortstop, and designated hitter in 2010, the Tampa Bay Rays still managed to win the American League East.

Their starting rotation still had the third best ERA in the American League in 2010, and 80 percent of it remains intact for 2011. Stud third-baseman Evan Longoria and speedy center fielder B.J. Upton, of course, will also be back on the squad, leading the way into the new era of Tampa Bay baseball.

Factor in external additions Ramirez, Damon, Peralta, and Farnsworth – combined with internal additions from one of the deepest minor league systems in all of baseball – and it’s easy to see why the Rays will remain a force, if not favorite, in the AL East.

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