Terrelle Pryor and his future in the NFL

One of the most interesting aspects of the ongoing Ohio State scandal, which has already led to head coach Jim Tressel’s departure, has been how it’s affected star quarterback Terrelle Pryor.

Pryor has been one of the most central figures in the scandal, which started with revelations that he and other players had sold or traded memorabilia ranging from gold pants to a Big Ten championship ring and led to his suspension for the first five games of the 2011 season (but not the January Sugar Bowl, curiously enough). The scandal then expanded to encompass the whole Ohio State program, and Pryor elected to leave the school altogether, perhaps thanks to new interim head coach Luke Fickell not returning his calls.

Jerry Hinnen of CBS’ Eye on College Football blog said Pryor’s initial decision to stay in school seemed like a good one at first, given his need to further develop his talent, but it doesn’t make much sense in retrospect considering the extent of the scandal.

“I would have called it the right move at the time — Pryor needed another year of seasoning before trying to enter the NFL as a quarterback, and scouts wouldn’t have held those five missed games (mostly against subpar competition) against him as long as he picked up where he left off once he returned,” Hinnen said. “But in retrospect, it’s a baffling decision. Pryor had to know the house of cards he and Tressel built would collapse under the slightest bit of NCAA inquiry; why he’d risk doing such irreparable damage to his NFL future by losing an entire season of football, especially with the lockout looming, is something of a mystery. In any case, it doesn’t help his already-tattered reputation for off-field decision-making a lick.”

Hinnen said considering what’s come out so far, the chances of Pryor playing in the NCAA again were minimal, so he had to make the decision to leave for the pros.

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“I don’t believe he had a choice,” Hinnen said. “It’s not official yet, but the growing Everest of evidence that Pryor took all kinds of improper benefits during his stay in Columbus suggests he had the same chance of being declared eligible for the 2011 season that I have of being elected Moon Chancellor. His college career was over, and leaving when he did gives him the option of not cooperating with the NCAA from this point forward (as well as immediately launching his pro career).”

Although it’s in its infancy, that pro career hasn’t been a smooth path so far either. After plenty of speculation about his next stop, including some ill-founded pieces suggesting he might head to the CFL, Pryor ended the discussion Tuesday, taking his talents to South Beach for a bizarre press conference with agent Drew Rosenhaus.

In said press conference, Pryor spoke for 97 seconds, offered vague apologies, and declined to answer questions. However, he did indicate where he’s going next; the NFL’s supplemental draft (if they hold one). Hinnen said that’s probably the best move for him, even if the UFL might give him more of a shot at quarterback.

“This may be hyperbole, but here goes anyway: if Pryor ever plays a down in the fly-by-night UFL, the stench of desperation will cling to him so tightly I’m not sure he’d ever get a serious look from the NFL,” Hinnen said. “From here, his best option is the one he appears to be taking: keep working out, put your agent’s connections to use, hope there’s a supplemental draft this summer — someone will take a late-round flyer on him — and if not, be ready to go at next year’s draft combine. There’s only one legitimate professional football league in the U.S., and dabbling in any other is tantamount to admitting you don’t belong in the real one.”

Dan Kadar of Mocking The Draft agreed, saying that the UFL may not be all that much of a developmental league for quarterbacks.

“The NFL is the best fit for Pryor, regardless of whether he’s playing quarterback or wide receiver,” Kadar said. “The notion is that he should go to the UFL if he wants to stay at quarterback because it will get him starting reps at the position and the coaches are former NFL guys. However, those coaches (other than maybe Jim Fassel in Las Vegas) aren’t known as coaches who have built up quarterbacks.”

Making it in the NFL may not be as easy of a journey for Pryor as some would believe, though. There have been plenty of questions about his ability to play quarterback at the next level, with some suggesting that he isn’t even a fit for the NFL at the position at the moment and should go to another league or switch positions to tight end or wide receiver.

Rosenhaus may not buy that, claiming over Twitter: “I’m not sure the NFL has ever seen an athlete like him” and insisting that Pryor is worth the sacrifice of a first-round pick.

Few who analyze the NFL draft are as high on his prospects. Kadar said even with Pryor’s athletic potential, he’s likely going to be a mid-round pick at best.

“No matter what position he plays, it will be hard to see any team use more than a fourth-round pick on him,” Kadar said.

Kadar said Pryor may get a chance as a quarterback, but that probably isn’t his ideal NFL position.

“I think some team will at least try him as a quarterback for a bit,” he said. “Maybe he’d be in the Brad Smith mold, though he’s not quite as fast. His best spot is probably wide receiver if he’s willing to admit he can’t be a pro quarterback and is willing to learn a different position. I don’t see tight end as a possibility. He’s big, but not physical.”

Hinnen said he thinks Pryor is best suited as a quarterback given his athletic potential, but the lack of development he showed at Ohio State raises questions.

“If we could go back in time and send him to a school that knew how to use players with his skill set (as in the pairing of Cam Newton and Gus Malzahn), he would’ve been a hands-down first-day draft choice at QB,” Hinnen said. “There’s no question in my mind. But now that he’s spent three years spinning his wheels under Tressel, I’m not sure. If I’m an NFL team, I draft him in the hopes he can become the uber-athletic quarterbacking dynamo everyone envisioned coming out of high school … but with the understanding a position change may be in order down the road.”

One thing Pryor does have in his favour is that “character concerns” over his involvement in the Ohio State scandal aren’t likely to dramatically affect his NFL prospects. Kadar said the NFL is about talent first and foremost, and plenty of players have wound up in substantially more trouble off the field, so Pryor’s issues from Ohio State aren’t too likely to hurt his draft potential.

“They’ll only hurt Pryor in the sense that whomever picks him will probably keep a shorter leash on him,” Kadar said. “You can just look at all the players who were given a chance who did far worse than Pryor.”

Because of the timing of Pryor’s announcement, he’ll likely appear in a late-summer supplemental draft rather than the spring regular draft. The supplemental draft involves fewer players, and teams have to bid picks from next year’s draft to try and land prospects. Some have argued that teams are less willing to sacrifice future picks than spend current ones, which might hurt where Pryor goes, but Kadar doesn’t think the supplemental draft will play out much differently for Pryor than the regular draft would have.

“Whether he went to the regular draft or the supplemental draft, he faces a battle as a quarterback,” Kadar said. “It’s probably more beneficial to go in the supplemental draft now instead of waiting until the draft in April. Regardless of which draft he’s in he wouldn’t be a high pick – no matter what his agent says. Where he’s picked shouldn’t matter to how he turns out as a pro, though. It will matter to what kind of cars he can buy.”

There’s still plenty of uncertainty over the NFL’s labor situation, but Kadar said that shouldn’t prevent a supplemental draft from happening.

“It won’t have any impact on whether or not it will occur,” he said. “That was already part of the previous collective bargaining agreement. The league has never had a set date on when the supplemental draft takes place, but it’s always sometime in mid-to-late July. It should be the same again this year.”

Even if he does somehow go highly in that draft, though, Pryor’s professional future will still remain uncertain. Kadar said he thinks five years from now, Pryor will likely have flunked out at quarterback and been converted to receiver.

“[I see him as] being an average NFL wide receiver who is good in the red zone and a solid weapon on trick plays,” Kadar said.

Hinnen sees a similar future for Pryor as a journeyman NFL receiver, rather than the marquee quarterback he once was.

“[I see him as] trying to hack it as a possession wideout for an NFL team, and doing just well enough to stick on the roster, but I don’t see stardom,” Hinnen said. “That ship has sailed, and Pryor doesn’t appear to have the off-field focus to bring it back into port.”

Even Pryor’s glory days of college stardom may not be fondly remembered, though. Hinnen said despite taking Ohio State to three straight BCS bowl games and winning the two he started, Pryor’s net impact on the program may be dramatically negative.

“In the end, Pryor’s Buckeye tenure will probably be reduced to three short words: not worth it,” Hinnen said. “In some cases, maybe most cases, I think college football fans are willing to forgive a scandal involving a star player if that player delivers championships on the field and lives up to his —in Pryor’s case —obvious, screaming potential. But after the avalanche of hype that greeted Pryor’s arrival in Columbus and his vivid physical gifts, nothing less than a national title was the expectation.”

“Part of the reason the Buckeyes never really came close to that goal under Pryor was his inability to perform in the unnecessarily rigid system Tressel and his staff asked him to adopt. And now his actions have helped cost the program its most successful head coach since Woody Hayes and could lead to NCAA sanctions stiffer than those at USC. Like I said: Not. Worth. It.”

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