Awaiting results of the Tim Tebow test

Roz Milner
October 21, 2011

There aren’t a lot of positives swirling around the Denver Broncos season right now. They’re 1-4, at the bottom of the AFC West and have a dismal -35 point differential. That’s not only among the lowest in the AFC, but the lowest in the league. Only five teams rank lower. Three of those teams are winless. They’ve also dropped three in a row.

Breaking things down on other levels, from more advanced statistics like strength of schedule or margin of victory to more in-depth looks like yards-per-play show more of the same. At best, the Broncos are a below average team. At worst, they’re one of the NFL’s laughing stocks.

No wonder they finally turned to Tim Tebow and announced he’ll start this Sunday against the Miami Dolphins. It’s made what’s normally a marginally-interesting game – the kind watched by fans of the two teams plus a few hardcore football degenerates – into an anticipated matchup. All because of one substitution: Tebow for Kyle Orton.

A little context will help explain why. Since the 2010 NFL Draft (in which he went 25th overall), Tebow has played sporadically, starting the final three games of his rookie season. He took a leading role in the lone bright spot at that season’s end: a 24-23 comeback win over Houston, where he both threw and ran for scores in the fourth quarter. However, he also quarterbacked two losses.

It could be why Broncos coach John Fox went back to Orton this September. It’s grossly unfair to judge any quarterback by team wins, but the Broncos have won just four of Orton’s starts since last September. Moreover, Orton’s stats beyond his record weren’t all great either; he finished 2010 with a QB rating of 87.5. While he threw often and for a lot of yards, his rating was well below similar passers like Drew Brees and Matt Schaub.

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The only surprise about the Broncos now turning to Tebow is only why it’s happening so late. Not because he’s great or anything, but because he’s a draw. Tebow’s by far the most-hyped quarterback who started this year as a backup, thanks to his college success, his personality, his status as a controversial first-round draft pick, his oft-publicized faith and his legions of fervent supporters.

Last season, the Broncos went to Tebow only when their season was finished. It felt like an internship of sorts; a chance to try him as a starter without the consequences of keeping him around full-time. This year, it feels like a fallback.

When Denver went to Tebow in Week 5 against San Diego, it was because Orton got off to an especially poor start: six completed passes, 34 yards and a QB rating of 21 through the first half. Under center, Tebow didn’t will the Broncos to a win, but he did make a game of it. He passed and ran for majors and the Broncos cut the lead to two points. Sure, they lost, but they did make gains in one of the NFL’s most crucial categories: buzz.

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I like to imagine there’s a little buzzer by ESPN’s news desk labeled Tebow, and the near-comeback in Week 5 set it off. Despite losing, despite being a team without much chance of getting to the postseason, the Broncos were talked about, be it on Pardon The Interruption, Around the Horn or ESPN’s NFL Nation blog.

There are a lot of positive things to say about Tebow. He’s fun to watch: he can run, sometimes he throws well and everybody’s got an opinion on him. He looked decent – not great – against the Chargers, who aren’t an easy team to beat.

The Broncos seem like a good match for his skill set, too. They’re not bad offensively, with an Offensive SRS of -3.2, higher than teams like Washington, Tampa Bay and Kansas City. While they’re not a strong passing team, they have decent rushing numbers: 101 yards per game and 4.3 yards per attempt.

With a backfield that includes Willis McGahee and Tebow, they become an interesting team to think about. For all his mechanical problems, Tebow opens a curious door for the Broncos offense.

But mostly there’s the buzz factor. There’s a vocal group of Bronco fans that like Tebow. They even rented a billboard and put his name on it. It’s easier to sell tickets to a losing team when it has somebody like him starting. It goes the other way too: there’s a crowd who hate on him for being earnest.

These all combine to make this Week 7 game against Miami one of the weekend’s biggest. How will Tebow look as starter? How will Tebow be recieved in his first game back in Florida?

One question that’s less likely to be asked is if the Broncos will be able to turn their season around, though. That’s the curse of a figure like Tebow. He may draw a lot of attention to a team, but at the same time, he actually draws it away to himself instead. The Tebow Show has its benefits, but not all of the focus will be on the team.

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The Author:

Roz Milner