Duke vs UNC: Previewing basketball’s best rivalry
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is one of the most successful Division I basketball programs in the country. Year after year the Tar Heels have been able to assemble a cast of elite level amateur talents and are annually considered contenders for the coveted NCAA National Championship. They currently rank third all-time with five national titles to their name, and trail only Kentucky and Kansas on the all-time wins list.
Each of the five coaches in the program’s history have been named National Coach of the Year, with the legendary Dean Smith claiming these honors an amazing four times over the course of his illustrious career.
An incredible 39 Tar Heel players have been drafted in the first round of the NBA’s entry draft over the program’s history including five time league MVP and six time champion Michael Jordan, who is universally considered the greatest player to ever play the game.
Just a few miles down the road in Durham, North Carolina is the campus of Duke University. In the heart of tobacco row and very much financed by the industry’s cheque book, the Blue Devils have transformed themselves into the most successful Division I team of the last 20 years.
Duke has won four national championships and ranks just behind their cross-town Atlantic Coast Conference rivals with the fourth most all-time wins. The Blue Devils have the highest winning percentage in tournament history at a whopping 0.750, and have won a record 19 ACC Tournament Championships.
For the last 31 years, one man has been the face of the Blue Devils basketball program and has made the name Duke synonymous with winning. Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewskihas averaged over 25 wins per year since he took the reins of the program. Winning a tournament-record 79 games and amassing 900 career wins, just three short of his Army head coach and mentor Bob Knight for the all-time wins record, Krzyzewski is simply legendary.
[php snippet=1]
Duke has had 23 first round picks pass through the program, and is tied for first place all-time with 11 players going in the top 10. They currently have 16 former players on NBA rosters; more than any other program, and saw three players drafted last year, including number one overall selection Kyrie Irving.
Going into the 2011 college basketball season both Duke and North Carolina are once again considered amongst the favorites to take home the championship. Their respective rosters showcase contrasting styles, but talent is a theme which they have very much in common.
Looking at each team’s coach, prospective starting frontcourts and guards, and comparing their benches in an effort to determine who has constructed the most formidable assemblage of talent, the following is a comparison on the 2011 edition of NCAA basketball’s most storied rivalry.
Coach:
Roy Williams (UNC)
The University of North Carolina has one of the best coaches in the country. Roy Williams ranks third all-time in NCAA winning percentage and has led the Tar Heels to two National Championships (2005 and 2009). He was selected to join the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2007, and has twice been named the National Coach of the Year. The Sporting News labelled him the Coach of the Decade for the 2000s.
Mike Krzyzewski (Duke)
Coach K has led Duke to four National Championships, 11 Final Fours, and 27 NCAA tournament appearances. He is a 12-time Coach of the Year, has twice led the United States to gold medals in international competition and is on pace to break the NCAA all-time wins record in the first few weeks of this coming season. He is simply put, the greatest coach that the game has seen since John Wooden.
Edge – Coach K (Duke)
This is in no way a knock on Williams, but there is not a single active coach that would win this match up.
Projected Starting Frontcourt:
UNC
C- Tyler Zeller (Sr. 7’0″ 250 lbs.)
After two injury-prone seasons at Chapel Hill, Zeller was able to put together a solid campaign in 2010-11, posting averages of 15.7 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 28.1 minutes. His health is always a concern, but he is a legitimate center who will create match-up problems all season long. If he is able to string together some respectable numbers he could see himself go in the first round of a center depleted 2012 draft.
F- John Henson (Jr. 6’10” 210 lbs.)
Henson has improved over each of his first two seasons, getting stronger and more skilled. He is a freak athlete in a similar mould to Anthony Randolph, with a 7’6″ wingspan that makes him one of the best shot blockers in the country. Last season he averaged 3.2 blocks to go along with 11.7 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. He can be a defensive game changer, and with the ability to score regardless of the scenario, he is a highly-talented luxury on such a competitive team. His potential is enough to get him drafted, but his rail-thin body, poor footwork and lack of strength will always stand between him and greatness
F- Harrison Barnes (Soph. 6’8″ 210 lbs.)
Going into last season, Harrison Barnes was widely projected to go number one overall in the 2011 NBA Draft. A slow start to the season lowered those expectations, but he came on strong enough at the end of the year to show that that level of hype was warranted. He has an NBA ready body featuring a seven foot wingspan on a very sturdy frame than Henson’s. His shooting form is excellent, and he is able to both pull up in transition and spot up from long range. Barnes plays with great discipline; getting low defensively and making wise decisions with the ball. He averaged 15.7 points and 5.8 rebounds last year, and enters this season amongst the preseason favourites to take home National Player of the Year honours.
Duke
F- Marshall Plumlee (Fr. 6’11” 225 lbs.)
While he may not start from day one, Marshall is the most talented of Duke’s three-headed Plumlee brothers monster. ESPN ranked him as the 36th best recruit of 2011, and he led his high school to four consecutive state championships. He was named Player of the Year in North Carolina after averaging 11.5 points, 10.3 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game as a senior
F- Mason Plumlee (Jr. 6’10” 230 lbs.)
Mason Plumlee has good size and elite level athleticism, but his 2010 season was somewhat of a disappointment. He runs the floor as good as any big man in the country, and occasionally showed flashes of offensive greatness on his way to season averages of 7.2 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.7 blocks. If he can develop some consistency this year and improve his atrocious free throw shooting he may be able to salvage his dreams of a future in the NBA.
Edge- UNC
The Plumlees are a nice college frontcourt, but North Carolina has three players who will most likely be first round picks in this coming draft, all of whom are over 6’8″ and have at least a seven foot wingspan. Their combination of length, athleticism and experience with create matchup nightmares for every team that they face.
Projected Starting Backcourt:
UNC
G- Reggie Bullock (Soph. 6’7″ 190 lbs.)
Bullock is a former McDonald’s All-American, coming off of a strong freshman campaign in which he averaged 6.1 points and 2.1 rebounds in just 14 minutes of playing time. He has great size for a two-guard and if he can show improvement and become a more consistent threat then he has a future as an NBA first rounder.
G- Kendall Marshall (Soph. 6’3″ 186 lbs.)
When Roy Williams elected to start freshman point guard Kendall Marshall last season ahead of veteran Larry Drew, the Tar Heels fortunes seemed to turn on a dime from disappointing to optimistic. Marshall is a true point and should be amongst the national assists leaders this season. Last year he averaged 6.2 points, 6.2 assists and 1.1 steals in around 24 minutes per contest. This year you can expect all of those numbers to go up.
Duke
G- Seth Curry (Jr. 6’2″ 180 lbs.)
In just his first season as a Blue Devil, Curry was solid while trying to adjust to Coach K’s system and went on to average 9 points and 1.4 steals while shooting a lights out 45.3 per cent from three point range. His role will expand in his second year in Durham, and if you don’t think he can handle it just have a look back at the numbers that he posted as a freshman before transferring from Liberty. He was good for 20.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.4 steals every night. He may even be the best shooter in his family, which seems ridiculous to even consider.
G- Andre Dawkins (Soph. 6’5″ 190 lbs.)
Dawkins contributed from day one at Duke and was able to garner 21 minutes of playing time per game as a freshman. His high percentage shooting makes him a threat anywhere on the floor, and even in such a crowded backcourt he should see his averages of 8.1 points and 1.9 rebounds climb as soon as the season begins.
G- Austin Rivers (Fr. 6’4″ 189 lbs.)
Throughout his high school career Rivers was one of the most followed prospects in the country. He is a total package combo guard with good athleticism and an elite ability to change speeds. He is an all around talent who has NBA range, good ball handling skills and is able to adapt on the drive; utilizing floaters, pull-ups and reverses to elude defenders. His shot selection can be an issue, and at this stage he is not really a true point guard, but he is said to have a good work ethic and you can be sure that Coach K will find out how to utilize him best. As a natural scorer, he is always a threat and will likely become the focal point of Duke’s offense.
Edge: Duke
Even with NBA level talent like Marshall and Bullock North Carolina simply can’t stop Duke’s backcourt from scoring. All three of their starting guards shoot over 40 per cent from deep, and River’s ability to penetrate will cause fits on a nightly basis. Like his brother, Curry is an underdog, and as history show us you may not want to count out players with that name on their back.
Bench:
UNC
North Carolina is at an unfair advantage in that freshman James McAdoo would start for virtually every other team in the country. Already projected as a top three pick in the very deep 2012 draft, he possesses a combination of size, athleticism, skill, clutch ability and work ethic that could see him blossom into a superstar.
UNC also welcomes McDonald’s All-American recruit P.J. Hairston to Chapel Hill this season. At 6’5″ 207 lbs. he already has an NBA body and can play both wing positions, and is currently climbing up the 2013 draft board as projected first rounder.
It was revealed that Junior guard Leslie McDonald tore his ACL and is indefinitely out, giving other Junior guard Dexter Strickland plenty of extra time in the rotation. Doing extra reps in backing up Marshall and Bullock, Strickland’s 27 minutes and 7.5 points will likely see a bump unless a nagging knee injury rears its ugly head.
Duke
The anchor to Duke’s bench will be senior forward Miles Plumlee. He shares the size of his brothers and should ultimately provide leadership to go along with last season’s averages of 4.8 points and 4.9 rebounds.
Junior forward Ryan Kelly will see an increased role. His shooting ability provides Coach K with a great deal of offensive flexibility, and his averages of 6.6 points and 3.7 rebounds will surely climb.
Duke’s rotation will likely be filled out by some combination of freshman recruits Quinn Cook, Alex Murphy and Michael Gbinije. Along with Rivers and Plumlee, they make up one of the most heralded recruiting classes in Blue Devils history, and should any of the latter three provide immediate impact the sky could be the limit for this Duke squad.
Edge: UNC
McAdoo is the difference maker here. He’s an absolute stud, with the type of all-around skills and basketball IQ that few players, let alone big men possess. He’s a prime one and done candidate, but as the first man off the bench behind Barnes, Henson and Zeller opposing teams won’t see any let up.
The Verdict
On any given night a head to head matchup between these two teams could yield a different outcome. They both have Hall of Fame coaches, players with star potential and the ability to score the basketball.
Ultimately, the edge goes to North Carolina because their frontcourt is so deep that there isn’t another team in the country that can possibly matchup with them. There also may not be another team out there with a staggering six legitimate first round prospects on their roster.
That being said, expect both squads to continue their winning ways and don’t be surprised if they carry their legendary rivalry all the way to the Final Four.
[php snippet=1]
