Four’s a crowd in Phillies rotation
While most teams in late September are simply scratching and clawing for the chance to make the playoffs, a few teams have more breathing room; tweaking the finer details of their batting order, situational statistics, pitching matchups, and the minutia that may just make a big difference down the line.
The Philadelphia Phillies are one of those teams this season, and are discussing options for their fourth starter come October.
Let’s be clear. The No. 4 starter on a postseason roster won’t be the glue to hold a team together. He won’t be the name featured on matchup previews or on memorabilia giveaways. He won’t be in the spotlight, be the topic of conversation at bars, or have a bobblehead with his name on it.
Nonetheless, he is an important fixture of a team. He’ll likely see a start or two, maybe even three. Baseball is a numbers game, and any chance a team has to gain an edge is extremely important. And if we follow the old adage that pitching wins championships, the fourth postseason starter does play a key role and a team must him carefully.
This year, the Phillies must decide between pricey and proven veteran Roy Oswalt, or talented youngster Vance Worley.
Both starters have excellent cases to take the bump in the postseason. Oswalt has veteran leadership, he’s been in the league for 11 years, and although his playoff experience is somewhat limited, he has been extraordinary in the postseason. In 2004 and 2005 with the Astros, Oswalt went 4-0 in seven postseason starts with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. In the NLCS for the Phillies last year, he allowed only three earned runs in 14.2 innings.
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There’s no arguing the fact that the man is seasoned and can handle the pressure of postseason ball. The question becomes, however, whether the veteran’s body is wearing down. Oswalt has been battling a back strain almost all of the 2011 season and has twice landed on the disabled list because of it. As a result, his numbers haven’t been as great in 2011 as in years past, as evidenced by his 3.66 ERA and 1.38 WHIP this year; a contrast to the microscopic 1.74 ERA and 0.89 WHIP he put up in his first 12 starts in a Phillies uniform last year.
With Oswalt’s injury troubles this year, along with injuries to several other Phillies pitchers, the door opened for 23-year-old Vance Worley, who has been a pleasant surprise. The former third-round pick has gone 11-2 with a 2.85 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 123 innings this season, and has hurled quality starts against tough playoff teams like the Boston Red Sox and the Milwaukee Brewers.
Both Worley and Oswalt have proven their importance with the team and each has a case to take the fourth starter role. Opinions differ throughout the city of brotherly love.
Lobbyists for Worley are not hard to come by. He’s the hot new toy on the shelf that every kid wants and, according to Sam Donnellon of the Philadelphia Daily News, selecting Worley for the postseason rotation would allow Oswalt to strengthen the Phillies’ bullpen.
“If I’m thinking about changing someone’s role for the postseason, it makes better sense to keep the rookie in his comfort zone and have the veteran shoring up a bullpen that leans heavily on a tired, eighth-inning setup guy [Antonio Bastardo], a seventh-inning rookie who has been knocked around of late [Michael Stutes], and Brad Lidge, from whom no one knows what to expect,” Donnellon wrote.
Others lean towards sticking with proven veterans in a playoff rotation and with good reason, as managers rely heavily on veterans. They’re the most trustworthy, and the easiest to cover for if they fail.
As Bill Baer of the ESPN network’s Crashburn Alley points out in a recent entry, not only would it be borderline blasphemous for the Phillies to deny Oswalt postseason starts in favor of Worley, but it would be a lot easier to relegate Worley to the pen.
“If Oswalt were to be bumped for Worley, wouldn’t that be insulting? Does Charlie Manuel seem like the type of manager who would want anything to do with explaining that to Oswalt? I can’t see it happening,” Baer said. “Meanwhile, it’s a relatively easy job to tell Worley he’s going to the pen – he’s not an established Major Leaguer yet.”
And then there are the fans. Who would they want? Well Jon Marks of Philadelphia’s Sports Talk radio station, 97.5 The Fanatic intended to answer that very question. During a recent broadcast with former Philadelphia catcher Darren Daulton, he asked the listeners to give their opinion on the matter. While opinions varied, the majority seemed to favor Worley, “[However] I think we all expect Charlie Manuel to select Oswalt,” Marks told The Good Point.
“He goes with his veteran guys. While I’d like to see Worley and I’ve been disappointed with Oswalt, I’d probably make the same move. I’d have a short leash with him […] with Worley ready to go if he stumbles.”
While some are quite vocal about the topic, others take a more cautious route and use the wait-and-see mentality. Enrico Campitelli, of the widely popular Philadelphia sports blog The 700 Level, feels that the decision is still up in the air, and that the pitchers’ performances down the stretch will dictate who gets the postseason rotation nod.
“I don’t think there’s a clear cut answer 2-3 weeks before the playoffs even start,” Campitelli says. “If Oswalt puts a couple of good starts together to finish out the regular season, I’d definitely stick with him.”
One thing is for sure: regardless of who becomes the Phillies’ fourth starter, a tremendously talented starter will be left out. Oswalt was a bona fide ace in Houston two years ago. Worley may very well develop into a steady hand near the top of a rotation as he continues to grow.
While the fourth starter selection and any additional edge a team can manage to gain in October does hold importance, with the skill sets both Oswalt and Worley bring, it would be hard to go wrong with either man this year.
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