The Capitals and their crisis of faith

Matt Horner
October 4, 2012

A crisis of faith has ruined one of the most exciting teams in NHL history.

The 2009-10 Washington Capitals cruised to win the President’s Trophy with eight points more than the second place San Jose Sharks. The Caps did so on the strength of a potent offense that scored 318 goals – the most of any team since the 1995-96 Pittsburgh Penguins (who had Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr and Ron Francis).

A pick by many to win the Stanley Cup, the Capitals instead were upset by the Montreal Canadiens in the opening round of the playoffs. It was the second time in three years that the Capitals were bounced in the first round.

Being upset so spectacularly — blowing a 3-1 series lead against an eighth-seed — led the Capitals to a crisis of faith. It was determined that the Capital style of run-and-gun, shoot-‘em-out hockey wasn’t going to work in the playoffs. The team needed to mature and become tighter defensively.

Too bad the whole premise is bogus.

Despite the old adage, defense does not, in fact, win championships. Teams don’t even necessarily have to be good defensively, provided they can score. Both the 1992 Pittsburgh Penguins and the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes finished 20th in the league in goals against, yet still won the Stanley Cup because of their scoring prowess.

On the other hand, offense doesn’t necessarily win championships either. Last year’s Los Angeles Kings couldn’t score a lick (at least not until acquiring Jeff Carter) and still managed to win the Cup, mainly because they were so strong defensively. And in 2003 and 1995, the New Jersey Devils were only an average goal scoring team, yet they too lifted Lord Stanley’s mug. 

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Really, as long as a team is elite either offensively or defensively, it can overcome its failings.

This is important because although the Capitals gained the reputation of a wild, free-wheeling bunch that couldn’t play defense, but the reality was that the team owned a league average defense, one that was going to get better simply through the promotion of Karl Alzner and John Carlson.

The Capitals’ real problem was penalty killing.

Teams can be deficient in a number of areas and still win the Stanley Cup. The 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins let in a lot of goals and, somehow, had a below-average power play, yet scored enough at even strength and killed enough penalties that it didn’t matter. But if a team can’t kill penalties, it isn’t going to win the Stanley Cup.

Over the past 20 years, only four cup winners have had a below-average penalty kill, and none have had one in the bottom third of the league. The 2009-10 Capitals, the ones pegged as cup favorites, had the 25th-ranked penalty kill.

After Jaroslav Halak shattered the team’s identity, the Capitals misguidedly tried to transform themselves into an elite defensive team, but in the process neutered both Alex Ovechkin and Alex Semin.

Year Champions Goals Against Power Play Penalty Kill
2012 LA 29 2 17 4
2011 Boston 5 2 20 16
2010 Chicago 3 6 16 4
2009 Pittsburgh 6 17 20 8
2008 Detroit 3 1 3 8
2007 Anaheim 8 7 3 5
2006 Carolina 3 20 17 19
2004 Tampa Bay 3 11 16 10
2003 New Jersey 14 2 30 1
2002 Detroit 2 4 2 7
2001 Colorado 4 4 3 18
2000 New Jersey 2 7 3 3
1999 Dallas 8 1 6 6
1998 Detroit 2 7 6 8
1997 Detroit 6 2 7 4
1996 Colorado 2 9 3 2
1995 New Jersey 14 5 23 16
1994 New York 4 3 1 3
1993 Montreal 9 7 16 10
1992 Pittsburgh 1 20 4 15

 

Ironically, the Capitals lost to the Canadiens because they couldn’t score, not because they couldn’t defend. The Caps only managed three goals in the final three games.

Despite the transformation, the Capitals had another two straight seasons of playoff failure. Now Semin is gone, Ovechkin is a cheap facsimile of his former self and Bruce Boudreau, a coach with the fifth-highest point percentage of all time, is in Anaheim.

The Capitals ruined an elite team, essentially crippling its main power, all because the team ran into a hot goalie at the wrong time. It was pure, dumb luck. Unfortunately, the Capitals reacted to this dumb luck by acting dumb.

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The Author:

Matt Horner