West Virginia and Dana Holgorsen gamble with Big 12 move
It’s appropriate that the college football team most closely associated with a casino scandal is also making one of the biggest offseason gambles. The West Virginia Mountaineers are leaving the Big East, but unlike fellow exiles Syracuse and Pitt who are waiting a few years, they’re doing so immediately, paying through the nose to the order of $11 million (plus the $2.5 million they already chipped in) in order to win their freedom and play in the Big 12 in 2012. Like most substantial gambles, it carries plenty of risk, but there are also great rewards there for the taking.
Off the field, there are benefits and perils. The Big 12’s TV contract looks much more appealing and should drastically increase the Mountaineers revenues (athletic director Oliver Luck has said he expects West Virginia’s TV take to double), and the Big 12’s future as a conference currently looks much more solid than the new-look Big East. However, the world of conference realignment is a fluid one: as recently as last fall, the Big 12 itself looked in danger of potential collapse in the wake of exits by Missouri and Texas A&M. The conference looks to be on firmer ground for the moment, but some of the issues posed by Texas’ dominance and the Longhorn Network (both major factors in the departures of the Aggies and Tigers) still remain, and although the conference is back up to 10 teams following the additions of West Virginia and TCU, its long-term future still isn’t guaranteed.
However, the conference’s future doesn’t look too bad for the moment. Powerhouses Texas and Oklahoma seem to want to keep it together for now, which is the most essential part. The Mountaineers and Horned Frogs will help on the football front, and there are enough other strong football teams (including Fiesta Bowl champions Oklahoma State and BCS-snubbed Kansas State) to make the conference a viable television draw, which is why they’ve landed a decent television contract. A lot will depend on if a playoff winds up happeningand if so, what the formula for it will be, but the Big 12 can make a strong argument for inclusion in that process. Their future as a top-tier football conference looks much more promising than the Big East’s, so from that side, this is a step up for West Virginia.
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The on-field elements may be more challenging, though. The Mountaineers were one of the most dominant programs in the Big East following Miami’s 2004 departure, making the final AP Top 25 five out of six seasons from 2005-2011 and claiming at least a share of the conference championship four times. While there were other contenders, West Virginia was generally the biggest fish in the pond. Now, they’re moving to a conference that features plenty of sharks. Texas and Oklahoma had underwhelming 2011 campaigns, but the Sooners did start the year as the top-ranked team in the nation, and both programs have more than enough resources to field tremendous football teams. Oklahoma State will look to build on their great 2011 that saw the Cowboys claim a Fiesta Bowl title and emerge as a real contender for the national title, Kansas State always finds a way to impress, and Baylor will look to build on the profile boost they got from Robert Griffin III’s unlikely run to the Heisman Trophy. Even the Iowa States of the conference can be dangerous, as Oklahoma State found out last year. While the Big 12 may not have Nebraska, Missouri and Texas A&M any more, it still won’t be an easy conference to win in.
From a scheme perspective, however, it’s a great fit. The Big 12 has historically proven vulnerable to bombs-away spread offenses, and ones run by Texas Tech and Oklahoma State have allowed those schools to succeed despite subpar defenses. One common factor in the success of the Red Raiders and Cowboys? Dana Holgorsen, who served as offensive coordinator at both schools and is now the head coach at West Virginia. Holgorsen’s own version of the Air Raid has successfully laid waste to the Big 12 before, and it seems highly likely to do so again. Playing games in fertile recruiting areas like Texas and being in a stronger on-field conference also should help the Mountaineers attract talent, and there’s some evidence to suggest those benefits are already kicking in. Jumping to the powerhouse-laden Big 12 and paying through the nose to do so quickly is a significant gamble, but Holgorsen and the Mountaineers have plenty of chips. We’ll soon find out what cards they’re holding.
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