What will the Willie Lyles saga mean to Oregon?

It seems that notable NCAA scandals this offseason aren’t just limited to Ohio State. The eyes of the football world are now locked on the West Coast, thanks to a pair of Yahoo! Sportsstories that featured controversial scouting service owner Willie Lyles talking about his dealings with the University of Oregon Ducks and head coach Chip Kelly.

Both stories, one at Yahoo! Sports directly and the other at Rivals.com, were published on July 1.

Lyles provided a bevy of information appearing to shoot holes in Oregon’s story that they’d paid him $25,000 for an obsolete recruiting list, suggesting that he only provided the information in question at the request of the athletic department to make his employment look more official and that his real value to the team came from more dubious quarters, including his “access and influence with recruits”. That “access and influence” may be even more problematic than originally thought and could cross into the realm of impermissible benefits to recruits, as Lyles told The Oregonian Tuesday that he helped the school give highly-prized recruit Lache Seastrunk a pair of custom-made Nike shoes. Particularly when you considerOregon’s ties to Nike and chairman Phil Knight, that revelation could make this a very thorough investigation indeed.

Lyles’ bombshells have set off shock waves across the college football universe, with writers from every outlet from Sports Illustrated to ESPN , CBS and Fox weighing in, and many calling for Kelly’s head. That’s remarkable, considering that Kelly’s Ducks were in the national championship game earlier this year and appeared to be one of the most powerful rising college football empires out there. How did it all go wrong in Eugene?

Adam Jacobi of CBS‘ Eye On College Football blog said Monday there were plenty of signs something was wrong with the Lyles deal before he talked to Yahoo! Sports, but Lyles’ admissions could mean the scandal becomes much more damaging to Oregon than it might have been if he’d stayed quiet.

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“This story did not begin with Yahoo!‘s report by any stretch; The Oregonian had already discovered what appeared to be a sham recruiting report weeks earlier, and Lyles only confirmed to Yahoo! that that report was more for the appearance of propriety than of any actual use to Oregon,” Jacobi said. “If Lyles keeps quiet, Oregon might have been able to obfuscate its way out of trouble – there wasn’t any actual evidence that Oregon was paying for influence on these recruits, just the appearance of something amiss – but now the Ducks are in a lot of hot water, and it’s up to them to provide the evidence that everything’s on the up-and-up. It’s a tall task, considering what Lyles told Yahoo!”

Jacobi wrote Friday that Oregon’s left with two choices; dispute Lyles’ account, or fire Kelly. So far, they haven’t chosen either approach, which he thinks could be problematic.

“They haven’t made a move in either direction, so they may have decided to just punt on the issue and make the NCAA make the decision for them,” Jacobi said. “That’s fine, I suppose, but it doesn’t speak highly of Oregon’s integrity – especially since, in Oregon’s words, they believe they’ve done nothing wrong.”

The Lyles situation may go beyond Oregon as well. Lyles was linked to some questionable issue around the recruitment of star LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson (now with the Arizona Cardinals) back in 2007, including allegedly demanding $80,000 from Texas A&M to steer Peterson there. The new revelations about Lyles, including his recent willingness to talk, could potentially reopen that can of worms. However, Jacobi said the particular circumstances involved there aren’t likely to hurt LSU.

“The interesting thing about Peterson’s recruitment is that, like Cam Newton, the allegations of requesting money for the recruit are coming from a school that didn’t land him,” Jacobi said. “For Newton, the story was that his father Cecil solicited $180,000, and for Peterson, Lyles wanted $80,000. In neither instance did the schools pay. Further, the NCAA has uncovered no evidence that the schools that did land Newton and Peterson offered any money of any kind (so far, anyway). So it’s a stretch to think that LSU’s going to be in any hot water unless some new allegations arise.”

Another complication more directly applicable to Oregon is how the NCAA categorizes Lyles. He could arguably be seen as a program employee, a contractor or a booster, and any of those classifications could carry their own issues and benefits. Jacobi said that isn’t likely to derail the investigation, though.

“If he fills multiple roles, then if the NCAA pigeonholes him as one it’s going to be inaccurate,” Jacobi said. “I don’t think that’ll be a problem, though; recall that the NCAA had no problem characterizing disgraced UNC assistant John Blake as both an active assistant coach and concurrently a runner for (the since-deceased) agent Gary Wichard while Blake was in Chapel Hill. I don’t think this NCAA investigation is going to be bogged down by semantics as simple as that.”

With any scandal, a large part of the issue is not just what actually happened, but how the people involved react. Watergate famously led to President Richard Nixon’s attempted impeachment and eventual resignation mostly because of concerns over a cover-up, and that’s similar to what happened to Tressel. A substantial part of any crisis is how it’s managed, and that often largely falls on both what decisions are actually made and on how they’re presented to the public. Jacobi said Oregon’s mismanaged the public relations aspect of this story so far, largely refusing to address Lyles’ accusations. That could come back to haunt them, depending on how the story plays out.

“From an official comment standpoint, Oregon’s taking the high road, for better or worse,” Jacobi said. “As of right now, it looks like ‘worse,’ but we don’t know what they’re presenting to the NCAA that could contradict anything Lyles has said at any point. That said, Oregon is not at all obligated to withhold details, because the NCAA has not presented Oregon with a ‘notice of inquiry,’ which would make its investigation into the Oregon matter official. That notice may come tomorrow, for all we know, but as of right now, it just looks like Oregon is either A) guilty of some serious wrongdoing, or B) criminally incompetent at P.R. The latter would obviously be preferable to Oregon fans, but neither makes the program look any good.”

However, that stance isn’t shared by everyone. David Piper of SB Nation‘s Ducks’ blog Addicted to Quack said Monday Oregon’s decision to batten the hatches and attempt to ride the storm out may be the best one.

“Oregon has nothing to gain by talking to the media,” Piper said. “The media can’t touch them, and they don’t owe the media anything. I’m not talking to the media if I’m being investigated for anything, either. All that matters is the NCAA, and what Oregon has told the NCAA.”

Piper said the Ducks have received strong legal advice, and that might be part of their decision to keep quiet.

“It’s worth noting that Oregon has hired the best compliance lawyer there is [Michael Glazier, dubbed “The Cleaner”], who has not been afraid to have schools self-impose [sanctions] where there is wrongdoing,” Piper said. “That Oregon hasn’t done so despite having this guy around tells me they really think they are clear.”

Piper said that optimistic stance is shared by many Ducks’ fans.

“Some fans are freaking out, but I think most fans are waiting until we know all the facts,” he said. “The bottom line is that Texas does basically the same thing, by paying high school coaches to speak at camps and stuff in exchange for access (and that is what Oregon did here, is pay for access). Oregon tried to start recruiting Texas, and found that they couldn’t break through with that network of coaches, so they resorted to this. I don’t think it’s a lot different – we just have a different connotation for high school coach then we do a street agent. I think most fans accept that you have to roll around in the mud, so to speak, to play for championships.”

He said there are definitely some concerns about the program’s future, though. A NCAA investigation is never a good thing, and whether this one winds up being extremely problematic likely depends on what Oregon’s already told the NCAA.

“Anytime the NCAA is sniffing around your program, it’s always a problem,” Piper said. “The alleged violations themselves, if indeed there are any (this seems to be a grey area case) are an interesting case study. If Chip Kelly ran this all through compliance, as the Ducks allege, it would seem that the compliance department would have their neck out there instead of Chip Kelly himself. Potential punishments to the program wouldn’t change, just the coach wouldn’t be punished. We’ll have to see what the NCAA rules. Based on what we know, and despite what some sensationalists in the media claim, this isn’t an Ohio State- or USC-type case where they were trying to hide things from compliance. Ultimately, I think as long as Oregon has told the truth to the NCAA (and we have no idea what they’ve told the NCAA) the punishments will be relatively minor. If they did lie to the NCAA, heads will roll and deservedly so.”

Piper said the NCAA’s track record doesn’t provide much reassurance for Oregon fans, though, as their punishments have ranged from extremely light to awfully severe for many offenses.

“I have no idea what the NCAA is going to do,” Piper said. “They are the most inconsistent organization there is, and you never can tell what they are going to do, which is the scary thing for Oregon fans. I think letter of the law we’re okay, but they have a lot of leeway on how they apply that. I think [Lyles is] pretty clearly an agent of sorts, which sounds bad on the surface. However, I don’t personally think its that much different than a high school coach who is being paid by a school.”

He said the Yahoo! interview may not be the decisive piece of evidence some claim it is, though.

“I think the Lyles interview is very overblown,” Piper said. “It didn’t tell us a whole lot we didn’t already know. We know Oregon paid for access to players (Lyles himself says Oregon didn’t pay for commitments, but we’ll never know for sure). It’s not like there was some kind of smoking gun there. The only potential new information is there were hints of what could look like a cover up. As I said before, if Oregon tries to cover anything up or lie to the NCAA, everything changes and they deserve what they get.”

Piper said calls for the departures of Kelly and criticisms of athletic director Rob Mullens are premature at this point.

“I don’t understand why people are talking about firing Kelly,” Piper said. “If he ran everything through compliance, his job isn’t on the line (keep in mind that if). If I’m Mullens, and I believe we’re innocent, I handle it exactly the way he has. If we’re not innocent, I handle it differently, but I’d rather not think about that.”

In the end, he thinks this isn’t likely to be a program-crippling investigation.

“If this is what I think it is, I see a few scholarship losses at worst,” Piper said. “This isn’t a USC case where they tried as hard as they could to jerk around with the NCAA and didn’t have a compliance department. This isn’t an Ohio State case where the coach blatantly hid things from the NCAA. I could definitely see us getting punished. I could definitely see nothing happening at all. I don’t think anything terribly major comes of this, at least with the information we have at this point.” Jacobi sees more troubling potential consequences for Oregon, but thinks a lot depends on what further information comes out. He said this could also have a NCAA-wide impact on recruiting rules and scouting services, but that all depends on further revelations and how hard Oregon gets hit.

“This is a question that depends on things that haven’t happened yet,” Jacobi said. “There could definitely be a clarification of terms if Lyles and Oregon are operating under some sort of loophole that allows both parties to get away with this scot-free (which seems unlikely at this point). If the NCAA has enough to hammer Oregon, then I don’t expect a major rule change, because the NCAA will have just proven that enforcement of its existing rules works just fine (or at least worked just fine to nail Oregon on this, anyway).”

Jacobi said even Kelly isn’t necessarily toast yet, though, as it all depends on what the NCAA can prove. That doesn’t mean Oregon shouldn’t take a hard look at if they want to keep him around, though.

“I don’t feel comfortable enough to make a prediction on that front until the NCAA at least issues a statement of inquiry, and even then any prediction would be loaded with qualifiers until the NCAA releases a notice of allegations, which seems likely but is hardly a given at this point,” Jacobi said. “It just depends on what investigators can prove. That’s a dicey proposition, though, and one not always related to the difference between right and wrong, which is a question that Oregon brass ought to concern itself with.”

In the end, regardless of what happens to the Ducks, the Lyles saga may carry notable implications for the NCAA. It appears to at least provide a partial look into the underbelly of the recruiting world. Whether Lyles is a hero or a villain may be up for debate, but it seems highly unlikely he’s the only one out there doing similar things. Just how much comes out about Lyles, Oregon and the college football recruiting game may depend on how much truth the NCAA wants, and how much they can handle.

Additional Reading
-Report shows Oregon, Kelly clearly aren’t doing things ‘the right way’ – Sports Illustrated
-Oregon releases more Lyles info and raises even more questions – Sports Illustrated
-Lyles opens up about his work for Oregon – ESPN
-If Lyles is telling truth, Chip Kelly must go – CBS
-Accusations could back Kelly into corner – Fox
-Chip Kelly may be sitting Duck as Will Lyles blows whistle on Oregon football – al.com
-Oregon Ducks Football Empire on Verge of Collapse – Lost Lettermen
-Oregon carries its own ethical questions into BCS title game – Sporting Madness

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