World Cup smorgasbord

On June 4, 2010, the 19th FIFA World Cup commenced in South Africa, where 32 of the world’s best soccer countries came together to do battle for the sport’s ultimate prize.

Eight groups, containing four nations apiece, shaped the round-robin play. Here, teams have been competing for the past two-and-half weeks in an attempt to survive the group stage and advance to the Round of 16.

With group play officially two-thirds complete, beginning today, clubs will play their final match before the knockout stage begins.

Either that or they will play their final match period.

In a tournament where only half of the participating teams play past their three round-robin games, the pressure has now advanced to do-or-die mode. The next four days will determine who stays and who goes, and unfortunately for some, 16 teams will be gone by week’s end.

As we enter into the final third of group play, the question on everyone’s mind is, who the heck is actually going to advance in this darn tournament anyway? For the most part, the standings are so tight that it’s really quite hard to tell.

And what happens in the event of a tie? Surely, we don’t just flip a coin to determine who advances, do we? Well, not exactly. Not right away anyway.

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FIFA outlines the World Cup tie-breaking procedure as shown below:

The ranking of each team in each group will be determined as follows:

a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches; (this one isn’t a tie-breaker – we already knew that)
b) goal difference in all group matches;
c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.

If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings will be determined as follows:

d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned; (i.e. head-to-head)
e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;
f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned;
g) drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee.

Did you happen to catch that last one? Drawing of lots? In other words, AT RANDOM! Are you kidding me? If we can’t break a tie, FIFA is going to crumple up names, throw them in a hat, close their eyes and decide the fate of a nation?

Wow.

Entire countries wait for four years at a time to compete on this stage, and their fate may actually be in the hands of pure luck. If only I were kidding.

Italy, the defending World Cup champion, may actually find themselves in this exact position. Holding an identical standing to upstart New Zealand, if the Kiwis and the defending champs both earn a draw of matching score in their respective games on Thursday, bring out the hats because a-drawing we will go.

In an effort to help you figure out exactly what is at stake in the next four days of madness – and to help you work out precisely what your team needs to do to survive – the following is a breakdown of each group as they enter into the final matches of round-robin play. I’m confident that it will either help you tremendously, or leave you more confused than you ever were before you began reading this.

Hopefully, it’s the former.

Before we begin, there are a couple of things that I can tell you with absolute certainty:
– The Netherlands and Brazil will be appearing in the Round of 16, as both clubs have clinched at least the No. 2 spot in their respective groups
– Cameroon and North Korea will not be appearing in the Round of 16, as both clubs have been officially eliminated

Beyond that, you’re on your own. Good luck – you’re probably going to need it.

GROUP A
– The Uruguay-Mexico winner will claim the group, while a tie will see Uruguay finish 1st and Mexico 2nd
– The Uruguay-Mexico loser will earn 2nd in the event of a France-South Africa draw; barring that, it will come down to goal-differential
– The France-South Africa loser will be eliminated; a draw will eliminate both teams
– France can only advance with a win and a Mexico win, while South Africa can only advance with a win and a Uruguay win – in either event, they will still need help in the goal-differential department

GROUP B
– Believe it or not, powerhouse Argentina could actually be eliminated with a loss and a South Korea win if the goal-differential doesn’t end up working in their favour; any other scenario will see them advance, while a win or tie will guarantee them top spot in the group
– Greece should advance with a victory, however, a South Korea win could jeopardize things; they will also advance with a tie and a Nigeria win (possibly a draw as well), however, any other scenario will put Greece out
– South Korea will be eliminated with a loss or draw combined with a Greece win, or a loss and a Greece draw; any other scenario will at least give them a shot, if not, qualify them
– Nigeria can only advance if they win, Argentina wins and they get some help with goal-differential

GROUP C
– USA will advance with either a win, a draw combined with a Slovenia win, or, both games drawing and the England-Slovenia draw is less than two goals greater than the USA-Algeria draw
– Algeria can finish 2nd with a win, depending what happens elsewhere; otherwise, they are eliminated
– Slovenia will finish 1st win a win, and will advance with a draw or a loss and a USA-Algeria draw; their fate will be determined by tie-breakers if they lose and Algeria wins, while a loss coupled with a USA win will see them out
– England’s lacklustre showing thus far will require them to win in order to move on, however, they will at least have a shot if both games draw (they would need to score at least two goals)

GROUP D
– Ghana can claim the group with a win over Germany, and will advance with a draw; they’ll have a shot with a loss, provided Serbia loses
– Germany will advance with a win; a draw gives them a chance as well, pending the Serbia-Australia result
– Like Germany, Serbia also advances with a win; a draw gives them a shot at 2nd, pending the Ghana-Germany result
– Australia will claim 2nd with a win and a Ghana win – a win and a Germany win or draw will require help; a loss or draw eliminates the Aussies

GROUP E
– The Netherlands have all but claimed Group E (a Japan-Denmark winner could see them finish 2nd), while Cameroon has been eliminated
– The Japan-Denmark winner will advance, while a draw will give the No. 2 spot to Japan

GROUP F
– Paraguay commands Group F – they earn first with a win, and can only be eliminated with a loss to New Zealand combined with an Italy win
– Defending champion Italy control their own a destiny – win and they’re in, lose and they’re out; a draw will leave it in the hands of the Paraguay-New Zealand matchup
– Many people are surprised that New Zealand actually has a shot at first – provided they beat Paraguay; a draw in both games will see the Kiwis’ fate determined by the final two tie-breakers, otherwise they are eliminated
– Slovakia can claim 2nd with a win; barring that, they will be eliminated

GROUP G
– Mighty Brazil is one of two teams who have already advanced to the knockout stage – a win or draw against Portugal will give them top spot, while a loss will see them as runners-up
– While not officially there yet, the only way that the Portuguese will not end up in the Round of 16 is if they lose, Ivory Coast wins, and the latter can somehow overcome a nine-goal differential
– Ivory Coast is all but done (see above)
– North Korea is officially out of contention

GROUP H
– Like their South American counterparts Paraguay, Chile is in command of their grouping – a win or draw versus Spain gives them 1st, while the only way they could be eliminated is with a loss and a Switzerland win, which would still come down to goals
– Spain advances with a win; they will have a shot at second with a draw combined with a Honduras win or draw, or a loss with a Honduras win
– The Swiss will claim 2nd with a win combined with a Chile win or draw, or a draw with a Chile win; they also have a shot with a win and a win by the Spaniards, a loss coupled by a win by Chile, or, if both games draw, it will come down to goal-differential
– Honduras is a long-shot to advance – they require a win over Switzerland by at least three goals accompanied by a win by the Chileans

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