Can Ron Zook keep his job at Illinois?

Josh Koebert
August 17, 2011

The University of Illinois football team has gone 28-45 since 2005. In that time the Fighting Illini have only finished higher than eighth in the Big Ten twice, including back-to-back seasons where they finished 11th and then 10th in the conference. 2005 is a significant year in documenting the team’s struggles, as that’s when Ron Zook was named head coach, a position he has held for six generally lackluster years.

So going into the 2011 season, how much room for error does Zook have left?

Zook came to the Illini in 2005 following a three-year stint at the helm of the University of Florida that saw the Gators play solid, yet unspectacular, football, compiling a 23-14 record. Zook’s Florida teams never finished worse than third in the SEC East under his tutelage, and finished in the top-25 in the coaches’ poll every year. At many schools, this would be considered a successful stretch, but the Gators’ standards were higher, and Zook was given the boot before the 2004 Peach Bowl.

When he landed in Champaign, Zook brought instant credibility and name recognition to a program that had won just four games in the previous two seasons under Ron Turner, including a lone conference victory. While Zook’s first two seasons mirrored that futility in Illinois’ record, he did have a positive aspect on another aspect of the Illini program.

George Kutsinis covers Illinois sports for SBNation’s Illini blog, Hail to the Orange, and he points out the improved talent coming through Champaign under Zook.

“Zook brought something much more than name recognition to Illinois, he brought recruiting,” Kutsinis said. “Zook was a well-known talent-scourer even by Florida standards, and given that he replaced Ron Turner, who couldn’t recruit NFL caliber quarterbacks who actually wanted to play for Illinois, Zook was seen as exactly what we needed. If you look at the recruiting classes that followed, Zook has delivered.”

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Those early recruiting efforts culminated in the best season of Zook’s coaching career in 2007, when Illinois went 9-4 and finished second in the Big Ten, earning a Rose Bowl bid. Despite a 49-17 loss to USC in that game, many Illini fans were optimistic about the future.

They would very quickly become disappointed.

2008 and 2009 saw Illinois finish 5-7 and 3-9, finishing eighth and ninth in the Big Ten and missing bowl season altogether.

Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports’ Eye On College Football and Foul Balls believes that the specter of the 2007 season extended Zook’s career in Champaign.

“Had it not been for that improbable Rose Bowl appearance, I do not believe that he would have survived as long as he has, nor would he have received the contract extensions,” Fornelli said. “Though at the same time, I can’t be sure he’d have been fired either.”

Last year Illinois compiled a winning record for just the second time under Zook, going 7-6 and returning to the postseason, defeating Baylor 38-14 in The Texas Bowl.

The Illini are looking to build on that success, but many doubt their prospects for the 2011 campaign.

“I wouldn’t think the expectations are very high,” Fornelli said. “If there’s any reason to be optimistic, it’s that Illinois went 7-6 last season and did so with Nathan Scheelhaase starting at quarterback as a freshman. He should improve in his second season, which would only be a boon to the offense, but replacing a back as productive and durable as Mikel LeShoure was won’t be easy.”

“The good news is that Illinois gets Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin all in Champaign this season with Penn State being the only road game on the schedule that could be considered “tough.” So it’s possible that the Illini will improve on their 7-6 mark last year and 4-4 conference record, but I wouldn’t expect it to improve by anything more than a game.”

Illinois’ schedule does seem to be shaping up nicely for the team, as they get many of their tougher opponents at home and they dropped their rivalry game with Missouri for this season. That’s a series the Tigers have dominated of late, winning six straight against Illinois, including wins in each of the last four seasons (the rivalry took a break from 2004-2006).

“Considering that the Illini haven’t beaten the Tigers, in good years or bad, in St. Louis since before my father was born, I think it was the right decision,” Kutsinis said.

Fornelli is a little less optimistic about the move, but still believes it was a smart decision for the program.

“From a fan and student perspective, the rivalry with Missouri is a fun one, even if the football rivalry may not be as contentious as the basketball one,” he said. “So for fans, it may be somewhat disappointing. From a football perspective, I don’t think replacing a team as strong as Missouri in the opening week of the season with Arkansas State is one that will hurt your win-loss record.”

Still, will a repeat of 2010 be enough for Zook to keep his job? He was hired under former Illinois athletic director Ron Guenther, who retired last year. New AD Mike Thomas could spell doom for Zook if Illinois’ football team struggles.

“This year, it seems to me less about the record, and more how we get to that record,” Kutsinis said. “Unless things go terribly out of control, there are three non-conference games and two conference games practically guaranteed wins for Zook. A fantastic win over Wisconsin in a 5-7 season might let Zook keep his job, but [with] clunkers against the likes of Indiana or Purdue, well, even a 6-6 season might not be enough. The new AD likely wants to show signs of progress, and losing to ‘lesser’teams is not progress.”

Fornelli has a less-positive outlook on Zook’s job security.

“Honestly, I don’t think it matters what the team does this season—short of a Rose Bowl trip or a national title,” Fornelli said. “I believe 2011 will be Zook’s last year at Illinois. The school just hired Mike Thomas as its new athletic director, as he replaces Ron Guenther. Guenther was a big supporter of Zook. Now Thomas will come in and look to do what he did at Cincinnati, and that’s take a school that has mostly been known for its basketball program, and find success with the football program. Much like Thomas found Brian Kelly and brought him to Cincinnati, he’ll be hoping to do the same thing at Illinois.”

Despite flashes of glory, Zook’s days in Champaign have been largely disappointing overall. We’ll see if they are in fact winding down. Regardless of their record, it should be a notable season for the Illini one way or another.

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The Author:

Josh Koebert