The Raptors are not who you think they are
The last time we checked in on the Toronto Raptors, their season was bottoming out. Now? Things are looking up: they’ve won eight of their last 11 games and have risen to 12th in the Eastern Conference. Their play has improved at both ends: they’re allowing under 100 points per game and their offensive rating has shot up to 12th in the NBA. All without former first-overall draft pick Andrea Bargnani.
It raises questions about what Bargnani and his giant contract means to the team. It raises questions about the roles of Jose Calderon and Kyle Lowry and which is the better guard. And, biggest of all, does it mean the Raptors suddenly got better over the holidays?
But these questions are a little misguided. The Raptors aren’t suddenly a better team because one player is gone and another is starting. They’re about the same as they were before. Let’s dive into the numbers.
The biggest takeaway from the change in Toronto’s play is the end results: they’re winning more than they’re losing. Remember, not too long ago Toronto was 4-19. Now, they’re 12-22. Since a loss on the road to Brooklyn on Dec. 12, Toronto’s gone 8-2. Simple math shows they’ve gone from winning just over 17 percent of the time to 80, but let’s look at the wins and losses in greater detail.
As previously noted, Toronto was losing games in all sorts of ways. But all losses look the same when combined; losing by 20 isn’t worse than a one-point defeat when you only look at a team’s record. This season, the Raptors are 3-6 in games decided by five points or less. In games where one possession decided the final, they’re 1-3. Like guessing wrong on a coin flip 75 percent of the time, this is more indication of bad luck rather than bad performance. Those final shots won’t always drop against them.
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Indeed, as a team they have performed some crazy feats under pressure. In a loss to Denver on Dec. 3, the Raptors nearly pulled off a 17-point comeback in the final minutes of regulation play. There are other examples where they just couldn’t pull it out – a three OT loss to Utah, a double-OT loss to the Spurs, both much better teams.
But what about the wins? What do they tell us about the Raptors’ play of late?
This season, Toronto’s 4-15 when playing on the road. At home, they’re a little better than average: 8-7. Their early record reflected their extended road trips, including a swing on the west coast and another of five away games in 10 days. Also, by and large, they’ve play good teams on the road, including the Jazz, Clippers and Spurs.
Conversely, they’ve been playing more games at home lately, often against lesser opponents. Of their last eight wins, seven have come against teams with a negative SRS; they’re teams below the NBA average. This includes doormats like Cleveland, New Orleans and Dallas, plus a sneaky-bad Portland team (their SRS is -2.31, 20th in the NBA!). Indeed, their only quality win in this stretch was over Houston on Dec. 16.
Generally, when they play high quality opponents like San Antonio (with an SRS of 9.10), Oklahoma City (8.79) or the Clippers (9.02), they lose. Granted, the Raptors are not a good team, but they’re not exceptionally bad. This is what we should expect from them, it shouldn’t be called a turnaround.
Still, they’re getting credited with one. Scribes across the city are writing feverishly (there’s even – gasp – playoff talk!). They’re suggesting the Raptors have turned things around for two reasons. One: because Andrea Bargnani is hurt. And two: because Jose Calderon is a better guard than Kyle Lowry.
There’s two ways to look at the second statement. The first is the same as above: the team is playing better because they’re playing worse teams on a court where they’ve had success all season. Of course they’ll look better when they play the NBA’s dregs than when they travel to LA to get smoked by the Clippers.
The second is to compare some of these games and note the differences. Let’s examine how they played Portland. On Dec. 10 – the last game of their west coast road swing – they lost by 18 points to the Blazers. Then, on Jan. 2, they beat Portland at home 102-79. That’s a 41-point swing. So what gives?
In the win, Calderon started. He didn’t get a single point but picked up 13 assists. That’s a good night, right? But in the loss, Calderon also had a good night: 12 points, six assists and was 4-7 from the floor. In fact, if you use Basketball-Reference’s game score, Calderon played better in the loss than in the win.
On the other hand, Lowry started in the loss and played just over 17 minutes. He scored one point, had two assists and went 0-5 from the floor. In the win, he came off the bench, didn’t score but had nine assists. Neither game ranked among his best, although he was more of a factor in the win.
When looking at team stats, we see Lowry has a higher Usage Percentage than Calderon and a higher Win Share per 48 minutes. So not only is he used more often in team plays, but he’s more valuable on a per-minute basis. His PER and Simple Rating are higher, too. By nearly any measure, Lowry is just as valuable as Calderon. He’s actually a little better.
And finally: what about Bargnani? He’s been hurt since December and the Raptors have looked better without him. The schedule helped the team a bit here, but there’s other factors to keep in mind: without Bargnani playing at the four, it frees up more time for Ed Davis and Amir Johnson, both of whom are more efficient than Il Mago.
So why are the Raptors looking better? It’s honestly as simple as that: Bargnani’s play is among the team’s worst and without him, there’s more time to play two of their best players, at home and against bad teams.
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