By Tristan MacClaren

Sports.ws Rumor Guy

October 24, 2009

You know the drill: you're settling nicely into your fantasy hoops draft and have gotten through a couple of nerve-wracking rounds. You've got a good sense of who you want next, but you panic - WAIT - WHAT ABOUT THE ROOKIES?

It's a good instinct to have, because they don't show up in last year's stats and no matter how much research you do, it's very tough to predicts stats like FPPM (Fantasy Points Per Minute) in an NBA setting. Maybe you're loving the Blake Griffin hype, maybe you're pumped for DeJuan Blair's preseason performance, or maybe you just have a hard-on for James Harden's bow tie. They're worth it at pick 35, right?

Not so fast. Rookies have perennially started slow and finished stronger, but in recent years, very few have been worth a high flying pick based on season averages. Since rookies are being taken younger and younger, they're also looked at as much for future value as rookie value (read: Ricky Rubio).

Below are Rookie of the Year performances for the past 33 years. Their rank is based on a blend of FPPG, FPPM, and games played compared to the rest of the league that year.

Some things to consider when looking at these numbers:

This list is only the best rookie performance of each year. Since the chance of you picking the ROY is less 100%, your rookie rank should be even lower.
Since the introduction of 3-year salary caps and drafting non-college kids, rookies have gotten slightly less playing time and their rank reflects that.
Older rookies have tended to fare better in their rookie season. Teams tend to draft 19 year olds looking to the future and don't always want to count on them too early.
If you're dead set on getting a certain guy, consider that you have to anticipate where everybody else in your league will take him. He's only worth taking at 70 if you can get him there. Going early at 60 might be worth it to you emotionally.

Rookie of the Year Performances

Since the merge of the NBA and ABA

Year	Player	Team	Age	FPPG	FPPM	Should Have Been Drafted
2008-09	Derrick Rose	CHI	20	25.6	0.69	71
2007-08	Kevin Durant	SEA	19	26.1	0.75	62
2006-07	Brandon Roy	POR	22	24.5	0.69	67
2005-06	Chris Paul	NOK	20	29.1	0.81	29
2004-05	Emeka Okafor	CHA	22	27.8	0.78	46
2003-04	LeBron James	CLE	19	31.2	0.79	20
2002-03	Amare Stoudemire	PHO	20	22.7	0.72	58
2001-02	Pau Gasol	MEM	21	29.0	0.79	29
2000-01	Mike Miller	ORL	20	17.3	0.59	132
1999-00	Steve Francis	HOU	22	27.9	0.77	34
1999-00	Elton Brand	CHI	20	31.6	0.85	13
1998-99	Vince Carter	TOR	22	27.3	0.78	28
1997-98	Tim Duncan	SAS	21	35.5	0.91	6
1996-97	Allen Iverson	PHI	21	33.0	0.82	16
1995-96	Damon Stoudamire	TOR	22	30.2	0.74	33
1994-95	Jason Kidd	DAL	21	23.8	0.70	66
1994-95	Grant Hill	DET	22	31.1	0.81	21
1993-94	Chris Webber	GSW	20	30.9	0.96	14
1992-93	Shaquille Oneal	ORL	20	39.6	1.04	6
1991-92	Larry Johnson	CHH	22	33.4	0.90	16
1990-91	Derrick Coleman	NJN	23	30.3	0.86	23
1989-90	David Robinson	SAS	24	40.7	1.11	5
1988-89	Mitch Richmond	GSW	23	30.0	0.87	20
1987-88	Mark Jackson	NYK	22	28.4	0.72	43
1986-87	Chuck Person	IND	22	29.4	0.82	32
1985-86	Patrick Ewing	NYK	23	30.7	0.87	20
1984-85	Michael Jordan	CHI	21	40.3	1.05	3
1983-84	Ralph Sampson	HOU	23	33.8	1.03	7
1982-83	Terry Cummings	SDC	21	36.7	1.01	5
1981-82	Buck Williams	NJN	21	28.2	0.82	28
1980-81	Darrell Griffith	UTA	22	25.5	0.72	46
1979-80	Larry Bird	BOS	23	35.4	0.98	8
1978-79	Phil Ford	KCK	22	25.1	0.73	79
1977-78	Walter Davis	PHO	23	31.7	0.99	16
1976-77	Adrian Dantley	BUF	20	31.2	0.85	6
1975-76	Alvan Adams	PHO	21	36.7	1.11	17

Where will the first rookie in your league get drafted?

: http://hoops.sports.ws/leagues/121313 La mejor liga actualmetne
02/22 05:12 am

: Ok, but I still got the doubt about guys like bradley beal or kidd.gilchrist. Don´t know what to do
09/25 02:47 pm

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By Tristan MacClaren

Sports.ws Rumor Guy

Rookie of the Year Performances